<< Previous Next >>

January 25 Arctic Air Returns And Update On Coastal Snow Storm

Jan 25, 2022

6:22 am

Tuesday January 25 – Morning Report

The mildest air of the week will be with us for part of today. The next cold front will arrive around lunchtime and then allow the return of arctic air.

Then we set up yet another Coastal Storm. There will be a Nor’easter developing Friday night into Saturday. Again, it has not formed yet and will not until Friday morning. So plotting how close and the impact for us is still tough. I have the latest info and my notes below.

Headlines:

Today: Mild Mid-Day, Colder Afternoon
Tomorrow: Arctic Air Back
Friday Night-Saturday: Coastal Storm!

Morning Surface Weather

The story today is the cold front. This will be the 4th arctic boundary this month! Each prior one pushed a low temperature of 15ºF at BWI on January 4, 16, and 22. There will be two more chances to drop even lower this week.

Morning Temperatures

While we begin in the 30s, check out the large pool of Below Zero numbers across the Northern Plains. That is heading our way, but will modify a little when it arrives tomorrow.

Local Temperatures

Temps this morning are mild and are higher than they will be by tomorrow afternoon (hint-hint).

Noon Temperatures

Temp shroud reach the max for the day around lunchtime in Central Maryland and Delmarva.

Temperature Trend: Noon Tue to 7 AM Wed

Winds will pick up in the afternoon as temps fall quickly through the 30s. Then bottom out in the teens and lower 20s by tomorrow morning.

january-25-weather-tuesday-temperature-trend

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY January 25

Normal Low in Baltimore: 25ºF

Record 0ºF in 1897

Normal High in Baltimore: 42ºF

Record 75ºF 1967

Wednesday Temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

Looking Ahead:

Saturday Morning Model Comparison

Here is a look at the European ECWMF and American GFS Models. There are many more models, but these are the two bog ones!

They have flipped with impact for us, with the Euro now the big hitter, while the GFS is farther east and not as strong.
Both bring snow Friday night, but the full impact splits when the storm hits full swing.
The GFS had outperformed two big events this month, but has been less consistent with this event given this new info. Up until yesterday it has been showing more snow inland…

Here’s how I view this:

Confident:

Storm will form (Friday)
Light Snow (for us) Friday Night
Big Snowstorm for New England Saturday.

Still Question:

How close to the coast?
Saturday Morning: If storm is closer, then how much more snow may fall?

Model Animations:

Compare the development

European Model: If You Want More Snow

This model was farther out to sea with a weaker Low Pressure just one day ago. Now it has pulled back west with a much stronger storm. The rapid intensification is shown with a closed Low that ‘retrogrades’ or pulls west and nearly stalls south of Long Island on Saturday. IF this verifies, it would bring more snow to our Mid Atlantic Cities AND pound New England with double-digit snow totals.

January-25-weather-snow-storm-ecmwf

GFS Model: If You Want Less Snow

This model was the stronger and closer one just one day ago. It has flipped a bit, and is less consistent now with this solution. Here is shows the developing Low farther off the coast and not as deep with the central Low Pressure.

We still see some light snow for inland Mid Atlantic. This is with the smaller part that will reach the coast and help ‘phase’ to feed into that new coastal Low.

There reason this is less impressive is due to timing. It speeds up the initial piece by 6 to 10 hours. That would lead to development farther east. However, it still brings a strong storm to eastern New England on Saturday.

January-25-weather-snow-storm-gfs