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January 18 Weather Arctic Air And Snow Thursday Then Maybe Storm Saturday

Jan 18, 2022

6:46 am

Tuesday January 18 2022

Wee are get a little breather with some quiet and somewhat mid air today and tomorrow. Then, the active weather pattern kicks back into high gear.

High Confidence Thursday morning with an arctic front. This will bring rain changing to a burst of snow right around sunrise. It may be just enough to impact travel and schools. This brings back more arctic air.

Lower Confidence Saturday with a costal storm. There is less agreement on the impact, but the reliable European does fit the pattern potential with a strong snow maker, this time for the big cities.

Morning Surface Weather

Quiet weather for two days. Still breezy today. Mild air spreads in tomorrow.

Then that clipper to our north will drag down arctic air for us Thursday morning.

Morning Temperatures

It’s cold, but relatively mild for mid January. We only get two days of this, so make the most of it.

Afternoon Temperatures

Also See:

Grade My Forecast For Snow On January 16 2022

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY January 18

Normal Low in Baltimore: 24ºF

Record -4ºF in 1957

Normal High in Baltimore: 41ºF

Record 68ºF 1990

Wednesday Temperatures

Morning- Not too cold

Animation: 2 PM Wed to 6 AM Fri

After highs in the mid to upper 40s, watch the collapse of very cold air returning… fully in place again Thursday and Friday.

That is with the arctic front, and set up for the next storm.

January-18-weather-temperature-forecast

Thursday Morning Snapshot

This is called an Ana Front, with most of the precipitation behind the boundary in the cold air. That will allow a start of rain to change to a burst of snow.

Potential ‘up to’ 2 inches. Temps will be falling to near freezing, so a wet stat can turn slushy and icy in a hurry during the morning commute. Yes, this may impact travel and schools.

Looking Ahead

Coastal Storm Saturday Morning?

Less agreement with this development.

The reliable European Model has been consistently showing a strong coastal storm riding up the trough in the jet stream.

The GFS for some reason does not develop this much, and shifts it farther east. Note: The last storm was NOT in agreement either until about 5 days prior. I do expect more alignment over the next day or so…

ECMWF Model Animation

1 PM Fri to 7 PM Sat

Since this model has the best reputation AND has the most impressive development, let’s check this out.

This is not the same but similar to our last storm… Here we see Low Pressure rising up north along the trough in the jet stream, interacting with the arctic air.

The bulk of the snow will hit most of the day Saturday.

This time, the track will be farther east… The heavy snow may set up for the big cities. Still some wiggle room, and we need to establish the arctic air first to help set this track.

January-18-winter-storm-snow-weekend-european-model