December 20 Cold Air Back And Another Close Call

Monday December 20

This morning you will feel it for sure! The advertised END of the warm spell has come with cold winter air back in place. Most temps this morning are back in the 20s and teens.

Do you recall that ‘potential’ storm this week that I wrote about last week? The computer guidance had it, then lost it within a day. That was the crux of my article about the unreliability beyond 5 days.  Well, now we watch the first of two ‘close calls’ off the coast, which I will show below.

The pattern is there, but the ingredients are just off. This does leave the door open to more when real winter does settle in.

Note: Winter Solstice is tomorrow December 21 at 10:58 AM. That will be the lowest the sun angel of any day all year. It will mark astronomical winter and the days will slowly begin to get warmer. However, our coldest temps usually occur in the 3rd week of January. That is known as the temperature lag.

Morning Surface Weather

Morning Satellite Loop

It looks like a growing storm in the Gulf Coast region… Which in many cases would be a storm for us. In this case, the northern branch of energy needed to phase and bring it to the Mid Atlantic does not appear to time out well..

Morning Temperatures

A hint of arctic air has returned with teens in the inland suburbs, and 20s for most of the metro are and Delmarva away from the water.

Afternoon Temperatures 

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY December 20

Normal Low in Baltimore:  27ºF

Record 6ºF in 1942

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 67ºF 1877

Tuesday Temperatures 

Morning

Afternoon 

Rain Animation: Tuesday Afternoon To Friday Night

The pattern once again brings a coastal storm to the Southeast US and just misses the cold air and our region. I do believe may nudge north a little, but is doubtful for a bump enough for a big surprise. 

The issue is that the pattern is showing us potential, we just need the timing with the cold air to shift the track and results. I believe we will see that happen this winter.

Looking Ahead:

Jet Stream Dec 24 to Dec 29

After the mild push ahead Christmas, we can see the ridge get pushed out and the return of colder air (blue/green) next week.

7 Day Forecast

We have near normal winter chill this week! But the chance for a White Christmas is not going to be here. In fact, the next system will pass north and bring us rain showers with mild temps.  

Then the next shift back to cold air before the new year. 

ALSO SEE

NOAA OUTLOOK: Warm Mid December, Please Let Me Explain

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist