February 9, 2024

Friday Morning Update 

We begin this day with an overcast of cloud cover that has allowed temps to remain mild. The back edge of that cloud line will determine who gets the sunshine this afternoon and how warm the thermometer may climb.   

The weekend will bring showers but not a washout. Sunday is more likely to soak Southern Maryland though. 

Next week, another storm system will bring in rain and colder air that may end with slushy snow. There is more agreement with the main models, but I am still cautious of the temperatures remaining above freezing to get too excited about what may result. 

Morning Temperatures

Already a mild start, thanks to the cloud cover. 

Morning Surface Weather

A warm front will swing through, allowing a warm-up into the 60s for most of our region. The long stretch of clouds with a cold front is connected to Low Pressure in Texas. This will be the source of some rain this weekend and, eventually, a final Low Pressure that may pull in colder air and end with snow. 

Afternoon Temperatures 

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY February 9

Sunrise at 7:06 AM

Sunset at 5:36 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  26ºF

Record -7ºF in 1934

Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF

Record 69ºF 2001

SEASONAL SNOW at BWI

9.1 inches

Recent Snow Reports

January 19 Recap

Click here for the maps and full report

Jan 16 Snow Report

Click here or the map to see: The Snow Report Ending Jan 16

Saturday Weather 

Morning Temperatures 

Afternoon Temperatures 

Storm Animation Saturday Morning to Sunday Night

Rain showers will expand east from the mountains on Saturday. It will NOT be a washout, but periods of rain are possible. 

The more established rain on Sunday will be more likely in Southern Maryland, south of the Bay Bridge.

Next Week

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE WITH THIS STORM

THE MODELS HAVE MORE AGREEMENT BUT…

The key factor here will be timing AND temperatures. After a warmer few days, the ground will be warm so daylight snow will have trouble sticking. 

Temperatures are likely to remain above freezing as well, so if we get snow in the dark hours and at night, it would need to be heavy to overtake the melting on the ground.

ECMWF Model Tuesday

GFS Model

ECMWF Model Animation: Monday to Tuesday Night

This has shifted south and now showing rain ending with snow… especially in our northern suburbs near and north of the PA line.

GFS Animation: Monday Night to Wednesday 

This model has been persistent, showing snow in central Maryland. I must reinforce the message I showed above: Temperatures will remain above freezing. So, we can’t assume this will be an impact event. 

More on the temps and potential in my next report. 

NOAA OUTLOOK COLDER

On Tuesday night, I wrote this report explaining the pattern change. Click this map or here for more…

7 Day Outlook

This may look more wet than it will be. Showers on Saturday will NOT be a washout… Sunday: Rain will be mainly in Southern Maryland and southward. 

The storm that follows may start with rain and end with slushy snow. Temps will remain ABOVE FREEZING, so I will not suggest accumulation or road impacts at this time!

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF