Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 07/16/2024 01:30:04 am
Temperature

82°

Clear

69°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

65%

Feels Like

85°

Wind (WSW)

5mph

Air Pressure

29.81

Sun
Sun Rise

05:54 AM

Sun Set

08:31 PM

Day Length

14:37 Hours

Difference

1 min 20 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

04:25 PM

Moon Set

01:21 AM

Next: Full Moon

Jul 21,2024

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

67°

88°

Average High
Record Low

57°


(1954)

104°


(1988)
Record High
Conditions

El Niño Update Late November: Shifting West May Mean More Snow For Eastern US

El Nino
Maryland Weather
Outlook
Winter Weather

November 27, 2023

The weekly update for El Niño has taken a few days to process. As we track and compare, a few things stand out for monitoring the warming water in the tropical Pacific Ocean.  The latest measurements show the warmest water of the event AND a shift to the west.

The importance here is two fold:

  1. The water temperature is on the top end of the forecast and is expected to grow stronger in December and January.
  2. When the warm water moves west into Region 3.4, it often all the downstream storm track to favor snow for the Eastern US.

El Niño Regions

This is the Pacific Ocean along the Equator. The regions are designated as shown. For a moderate to strong El Niño, the prime region to watch is 3.4.

NOAA El Nino Regions

 

 

Latest Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly: November 22

This is the comparison to average water temperature.

2.18ºC ABOVE AVERAGE is the highest of the event (so far).

Here we also see distinct warming expanding farther WEST into Region 3.4 and Region 4.

El Nino Sea Surface Temperatures November 22

 

Region Temperature Measurement Comparison

Region 1 + 2 (EAST)

Notice the downward trend. That signals cooling as the warm water gets pushed farther WEST.

November 22 El Nino Region 1 2

 

Region 3.4

This recent BUMP shows the warming in this area that is the significant factor to grade this El Niño.

November 22 El Nino Region 3 4

 

Sea Surface Temperature Trend Per Region

November 22 El Nino Regions Trend

 

Animation September 6 to November 22

November 22 El Nino Sea Surface Temperatures Anomalies Animation

What Does This Mean?

Well, the warmer water of El Niño located in the Central Pacific Ocean is the birthing ground for many storms that can influence the Southern Jet Stream. This, in turn, dictates a lot of storms we can get in the US… with a higher trend for the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast of the US. Get your chimney sweep ASAP

NOAA El Nino Winter Storm Pattern United States

 

My Suggested Winter Storm Tracks

  • Inland Tracks = More Rain (some ice)
  • Coastal Storms DO NOT guarantee snow for us.  It is threading the needle to get it just right for big snow.

Winter Storm Tracks El Nino

 

Mid Atlantic Influence

From my Winter Outlook report: The recent Moderate to Strong El Niños have either brought Baltimore, MD, very low snow under 5 inches or very high over 35 inches. The typical winter brings close to 20 inches.

The higher snow winters occurred when El Niño was focused in Region 3.4 or Region 4.

Since 2000, the moderate to strong El Niños have brought two of the top three snowy winters.

Since 1972: 5 of 8 of these winters have had at least 35 inches of snow.

El Nino Winter Snow Baltimore

 

My Forecast Outlook: Seasonal Snow Potential

I went 20 to 30 for Baltimore to play on the tendency for the observation at the airport to be lower due to more artificial heating.

My map does account for up to 50% above average.  We only need one or two solid storms to bust on the high end.

My Call For Snowfall

  • Above average all around. (Click here for my full report)
  • I gave large ranges to account for variations within storms.
  • Big BUST Potential. There will either be a very favorable pattern with multiple moderate to large storms… or we will end up missing the action.
  • Storms will be MORE FAVORABLE JANUARY AND FEBRUARY.

My Call Winter Snow 2024 Maryland Virginia Pennsylvania

 

Other Winter Outlook Reports:

El Niño Winter Updates

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

Winter Precipitation El Nino CFSv2 Model

 

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

El Nino November 2023 

 

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

 

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

 

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Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

Faith in the Flakes Gear

 

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

 

 

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media

 

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

#FITF