Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 03/01/2024 02:30:03 pm
Temperature

49°

Mostly Cloudy

21°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

33%

Feels Like

44°

Wind (SSE)

13mph

Air Pressure

30.54

Sun
Sun Rise

06:38 AM

Sun Set

05:59 PM

Day Length

11:21 Hours

Difference

2 min 32 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

07:00 PM

Moon Set

09:16 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Mar 03,2024

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

29°

49°

Average High
Record Low

11°


(1980)

80°


(1972)
Record High
Conditions

Winter Aiming To Return Valentines Week: Snow Not Done Yet

El Nino
NOAA
Outlook
climate data
Winter Weather

February 6, 2024

I am writing this from the perspective of the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. After a busy snow week in January, it has all melted away, and it seems like winter is nonexistent. The long-range outlook this month begs to differ. 

The last two years have featured such low snow that the two storms we had in mid-January beat that!

Using Baltimore’s BWI: The seasonal snow is currently 9.1”, which is only 1.4” below average since December 1, within reason for the season.

The current weather pattern is dry and cool, but we expect temperatures into the 60s this weekend. I realize there is a belief that with no snow on the ground and a few warm days, it may feel like winter is done. This is far from the case. First, I have seen countless times when a warm day or stretch in winter is quickly matched with cold and snow. In fact, often, the jet stream that will buckle to produce a warm day will flip and bring in the cold to balance things out. The law of averages can sometimes mean the warmer the warmth with be followed by colder COLD!

NOAA Outlook: Colder Temperatures Week

The trend from Valentine’s Week, February 14 to 20, is shown here with the Eastern US ‘Below’ or colder than average. 

February 6 weather temperature outlook cold

 

Snow Early Next Week? Or Later?

In my last two morning reports, I have shown the GFS Model with a “Wish-Cast” for snow. I DO NOT trust any model forecast beyond one week. In fact, I broke protocol to show the maps only to provide some hope. This also needs a reality check.

The GFS Model is still trying to turn the corner with Low Pressure and bring in snow Monday night. 

The ECMWF Model has the jet stream suppressed to our south, keeping rain across the Carolinas and missing us. 

Note: I believe both models below still don’t have the final solution. We may end up with something of a hybrid in between:

GFS Model Animation

Monday Feb 12 to Tuesday Feb 13

Snow Forecast Monday

Snapshot Monday Night

February 6 forecast snow Monday GFS

ECMWF Model Animation

Monday, Feb 12 to Wednesday, Feb 14

February 6 forecast rain Tuesday ECMWF

 

Snapshot Tuesday Morning

February 6 forecast rain Tuesday ECMWF

 

Long Range Outlook

Jet Stream: Sun Feb 11 to Fri Feb 16

ECMWF Model 

February 6 weather outlook jet stream cold

 

Snapshot Fri Feb 16

Here, we see the development of a Winter Weather Pattern that is worthy of interest. 

Left: A large Ridge dominates the west coast of North America.

Right: A distinct Negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO)/Greenland Block develops with a Ridge over Greenland and Closed Low to the South over the Atlantic.

Eastern US Trough: This is a weather pattern that will be fed by the cold of the -NAO down the East Coast. This supports the colder temperatures and the potential for storms to bring snow. 

February 6 weather jet stream outlook cold

 

Global Telecommunication Patterns

The North Atlantic Oscillation 

Trending Negative through February 20.

This signals a colder and more stormy weather pattern for Eastern North America. 

February 6 weather outlook North Atlantic

 

The Pacific-North American Oscillation 

This trending positive does mean a warmer pattern for Western North America but also supports the trough and cold for Eastern North America. 

February 6 weather outlook Pacific North American

Reminder: 

This is simply an outlook and not a promise of any specific weather event. However, this does comply with our statistical tendency to see snow, most likely in the middle of February.

Also: Moderate to Strong El Niño winters have 75% of snowfall AFTER January 20. We are still in the thick of winter!

#FITF

 

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Recent Snow Reports

January 19 Recap

Click here for the maps and full report

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Click here or the map to see: The Snow Report Ending Jan 16

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Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media

 

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF