February 7 2024
Wednesday Morning Update
We start off chilly and clear, as High Pressure remains in control across the Eastern US. The pattern will shift to bring us warmer temps for the weekend. This comes with a storm system that will break up but bring us the best chance of rain on Saturday.
Another storm will follow on Monday into Tuesday that will be leading the pattern change. That rain may end with some snow mix… then set us back to reestablishing a winter weather pattern over the week ahead.
High Pressure is in control! This will set us up for much of the week with sunshine.
An onshore flow continues off the East Coast. This is why the coastal waters remain high, with the risk of shoreline flooding.
Water Levels may produce flooding for the Annapolis Docks through Monday. The high water may also produce light to moderate flooding across Southern Maryland and parts of the Lower Eastern Shore.
Sunrise at 7:08 AM
Sunset at 5:34 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record 6ºF in 1895
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record 72ºF 2017
SEASONAL SNOW at BWI
9.1 inches
Click here for the maps and full report
Click here or the map to see: The Snow Report Ending Jan 16
The combination of High Pressure in Eastern Canada and Low Pressure off the Southeast US Coast will keep the onshore flow and high water.
The weather itself will be quiet and dry for us.
This weather system appears to bring the best ‘chance’ for rain on Saturday, then shift south on Sunday. This will arrive with warmer temps around 60ºF…
There will be a weather event, AND I do not think, even today, the models have a good handle on it. Yes, there is analysis that goes on behind the scenes. The products I show you are solutions that prove the GFS and ECMWF are both still not in agreement on the timing or solution. Either way, if we get any snow to mix in, the temps and ground are too warm for impact locally.
It will set up a colder pattern to follow.
Here is the GFS Model that shows the rain moving in and trying to end with snow for the inland suburbs…
Here we see snow in the mountains that may swing through to northern suburbs as it comes to an end.
This has a slower/later solution. There is a hint there may be snow or a period of mixing, but still with temps above freezing.
Just rain showers with the steady rain to our South and wet to the west (slower arrival).
Low Pressure moving off the Delmarva Coast south of Ocean City. This would bring a steady rain, with snow in the mountains.
Low Pressure strengthening off the coast! While we still see rain here, there is a band of snow in the higher intensity of precipitation on the back side of the Low. This suggests a tap into the colder air aloft… and perhaps a brief period of snow when this swings by… then back to rain when the precipitation intensity lightens.
Still, temps remain above freezing so little to no impact locally.
Last night, I wrote this report explaining the pattern change. Click this map or here for more…
Here we see a Broad Trough across the Eastern US. This shows WINTER reestablishing itself. This setup will last into the next week. So, weather systems will be colder with a chance of snow showing back up.
Temperatures will be warming ahead of the weekend weather event. This storm may bring the best ‘chance’ for rain on Saturday, then shift south on Sunday.
The return of colder air will arrive with the next storm on Monday. Rain may end with a mix of snow inland… then flurries to follow.
As we saw above, the rest of the week will turn colder as we establish a return of the winter pattern.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
