February 9, 2024
Friday Morning Update
We begin this day with an overcast of cloud cover that has allowed temps to remain mild. The back edge of that cloud line will determine who gets the sunshine this afternoon and how warm the thermometer may climb.
The weekend will bring showers but not a washout. Sunday is more likely to soak Southern Maryland though.
Next week, another storm system will bring in rain and colder air that may end with slushy snow. There is more agreement with the main models, but I am still cautious of the temperatures remaining above freezing to get too excited about what may result.
Already a mild start, thanks to the cloud cover.
A warm front will swing through, allowing a warm-up into the 60s for most of our region. The long stretch of clouds with a cold front is connected to Low Pressure in Texas. This will be the source of some rain this weekend and, eventually, a final Low Pressure that may pull in colder air and end with snow.
Sunrise at 7:06 AM
Sunset at 5:36 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record -7ºF in 1934
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record 69ºF 2001
SEASONAL SNOW at BWI
9.1 inches
Click here for the maps and full report
Click here or the map to see: The Snow Report Ending Jan 16
Rain showers will expand east from the mountains on Saturday. It will NOT be a washout, but periods of rain are possible.
The more established rain on Sunday will be more likely in Southern Maryland, south of the Bay Bridge.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE WITH THIS STORM
THE MODELS HAVE MORE AGREEMENT BUT…
The key factor here will be timing AND temperatures. After a warmer few days, the ground will be warm so daylight snow will have trouble sticking.
Temperatures are likely to remain above freezing as well, so if we get snow in the dark hours and at night, it would need to be heavy to overtake the melting on the ground.
This has shifted south and now showing rain ending with snow… especially in our northern suburbs near and north of the PA line.
This model has been persistent, showing snow in central Maryland. I must reinforce the message I showed above: Temperatures will remain above freezing. So, we can’t assume this will be an impact event.
More on the temps and potential in my next report.
On Tuesday night, I wrote this report explaining the pattern change. Click this map or here for more…
This may look more wet than it will be. Showers on Saturday will NOT be a washout… Sunday: Rain will be mainly in Southern Maryland and southward.
The storm that follows may start with rain and end with slushy snow. Temps will remain ABOVE FREEZING, so I will not suggest accumulation or road impacts at this time!
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Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
