Update On Polar Vortex Disruption This Weekend And Cold Outlook From NOAA

Thursday March 24 2022

Night Report

I have shared a few updates on this Polar Vortex disruption on the way this weekend. There has been a lot of activity this week, but with it about to impact us with an abrupt change I thought it was time to show the latest. The pattern may kick off with snow showers, the establish a ‘mostly’ chilly stretch into the start of April.

But First…

The Cold Today Is Different Than What’s On The Way

COLD AIR DAMMING

I shared this map from 4 PM on my social media pages… It highlights that the warm air remained stalled in southern Maryland. If you missed it, below was my message:

As weather follower asked why we often get a forecast for warming with a storm that does not happen.

This is why: 

Northeast Winds are cool and damp. They lock in a dense air mass close to the surface. This can settle in by the Bay and against the mountains. 

Warmer air  (less dense) ‘trying’ to move in is forced up and over.

The result by the boundary is clouds, drizzle, and FOG.

The warm air seems to stall, and that is the region where Storms are most likely.

*So the 70ºF forecast for Baltimore from yesterday failed. I mentioned that this morning.. but the air mass was stuck about 60 miles south.

STORM MOVING OUT

Here is the evening weather map. Rain showers have resurged (as I mentioned in my prior report)

Winds will shift from the west on Friday clearing us out briefly, before the next push of cold air arrives this weekend.

WEEKEND WEATHER

Cold Upper Level Low (at 18,000 Ft)

The core will be passing through New York on Saturday. I’ve highlighted the Vort Max, a piece of energy that will pivot through Maryland. This will stimulate instability showers.

It will be cold enough to mix with snow.

Vorticity Animation: Early Saturday Morning To Sunday Evening

Here we can see the flow of energy aloft continuing to bring in the upper air flow from much colder central Canada…

Saturday Afternoon Surface Weather

The GFS Model now plotting more snow showers into central Maryland.

The air aloft will be cold enough for flakes to fall. Perhaps a mix with some ice pellets or graupel. The ground will NOT support stickage.

About That Polar Vortex 

Saturday Morning: Jet Stream

The Upper Low I just showed is NOT the Polar Vortex. That will be located in central Candid west of Hudson Bay… But it will be dropping southward!

Jet Stream OUTLOOK Animation: 

Saturday March 26 Morning to April 5

This is 10 Day Look… Overall we see a cold trend , with a couple of warmer days in the middle.

NOAA Temperature Outlook

This updated 8 to 16 Day trend shows the large region with cooler than normal temps expected.

Temperature Translation

How Cold Will It Be?

Well, here is the GFS Model for Baltimore at BWI.

It is NOT perfect!  But I want to note that ‘farther out in time; the model relies more heavily on climatology. So for this to be weighted so cool is a signal that we have a dominant cold force… Also note that inland areas will be colder and have more mornings with deep freezes. 

But there will be a few days in the middle that may reach the 70s. Such is the weather that Maryland Memes are made from.

ALSO SEE

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

ALL FITF GEAR

FITF THUNDERSNOW

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF