Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 01/16/2022 02:10:03 pm
Temperature

26°

Cloudy

14°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

60%

Feels Like

16°

Wind (NE)

10mph

Air Pressure

30.12

Sun
Sun Rise

07:23 AM

Sun Set

05:09 PM

Day Length

09:46 Hours

Difference

1 min 28 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

03:52 PM

Moon Set

06:40 AM

Next: Full Moon

Jan 17,2022

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

24°

41°

Average High
Record Low


(1893)

71°


(1953)
Record High
Current Conditions

My First Call For Snowfall And Storm Arrival Time Sunday Jan 16

Coastal Storm
Winter Weather
Forecast
Warnings

Friday January 14 2022

As the storm takes form in the Northern Plains States, and we are within 2 days of the storm for our region, I am ready to present my First Call For Snowfall. There is a lot of confidence that the arrival will be snow, and it will come down heavy in a hurry. 

If you have plans Sunday afternoon and evening, this is time to think again. We will have a large impact event.

There will be a transition to sleet and freezing rain in most urban areas and around the Chesapeake Bay.   Farther west, this will remain snow in the mountains, where double digit totals will be seen.

I still expect some wiggle room for tracking the transition time and locations. But the overall impact will include the wintry start, ice on snow for many, and strong winds gusting to 50 mph on Monday.

More on the details coming up. This report is about the onset time and snow.

Winter Storm Warning is up for the areas that expect mostly or all snow.

More Advisories will be issued for the rest of the region soon. 

Friday Afternoon Set Up

Surface Weather

 

Temperatures 

 

Arrival Time —> slider

NAM 3Km Noon to 7 PM Sunday 

 

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My Call For Snowfall

There will be a tight gradient of snow totals based on when the warm air comes in with the easterly winds.

The transition will be from the south and east…

Given the arctic air in place ahead of the storm, there may be extensive icing in the areas in blue, especially in dark blue.  Up to 1/4″ of ice on top of the snow is possible. Ice can linger longer than model suggest, so the timing will be refined as we get closer.

 

Important Note:

The strong storm will have a lot of wind pulling in warmer air off of the Atlantic to mix over snow to ice and rain east of the mountains. Then the winds will switch to the west behind the storm on Monday.

 

Wind Forecast Sunday 12 PM to Monday 12 PM

Peak gusts will be higher than the steady wind forecast shown here.

January-14-weather-storm-wind-sunday

 

Other Calls:

Computer Model Guidance

European Model

 



 

GFS Model

 

Canadian Model

 

National Weather Service Offices

Click here to view all offices with maps of the range of expectations.

 

 

Initial Winter Storm Warnings:

More advisories will be issued shortly

Highest Impact Zones With Most Snow

These are areas most likely to get OVER 6 inches of snow.  The places that stay all snow in the mountains will get over 12 inches of snow.

This will be upgraded to a WARNING when within 24 hours of the start.

Many more areas will still get advisories issued for lower snow, and even wind impacts as we get closer.

 

Faith in the Flakes.

 

Also See:

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ALSO SEE

 

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

 

ALL FITF GEAR

 

 

 

FITF THUNDERSNOW

 

 

 

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

 

 

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

 

 

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

 

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

 

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

 

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

 

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

 

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

 

Winter Folklore Checklist

 

 

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter: @JustinWeather

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