Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 01/16/2022 12:10:02 pm
Temperature

22°

Cloudy

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

52%

Feels Like

13°

Wind (NNE)

7mph

Air Pressure

30.27

Sun
Sun Rise

07:23 AM

Sun Set

05:09 PM

Day Length

09:46 Hours

Difference

1 min 28 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

03:52 PM

Moon Set

06:40 AM

Next: Full Moon

Jan 17,2022

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

24°

41°

Average High
Record Low


(1893)

71°


(1953)
Record High
Current Conditions

January 14 Winter Storm Forming And First Watches Issued

Coastal Storm
Winter Weather
Forecast
Warnings

Friday January 14 2022

This morning the start of the winter storm is showing up in the US on the weather map, but it will be taking a long scenic route to the southern states  then our way Sunday. We will have widespread travel impact for the first few hours across our region. That will be mid Sunday afternoon to evening. It will be at night when the ice and rain will expand our way. 

The good news is that more solid information with this ‘on the grid’ now had the main models in agreement. I have NEW COMPARISON maps below. 

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the areas expected to have mostly snow and the highest impact. There will be more ‘advisories’ added!  We will see a wide range of snow, ice, and strong winds into Monday. 

Morning Set Up

Surface Weather

Snow has expanded across the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Iowa.  Low Pressure will develop and drop south. New plots of the path below..

Off the east coast is another storm missing us. But it will pull in stronger winds that will help drag down the arctic air from eastern Canada later today and tomorrow.

 

Temperatures 

Check out the source of that Arctic Air in Canada. Wow!

 

Local Temps

It’s not that cold to start our day. We will have mild weather ahead of the storm. 

 

 

Afternoon Temperatures

Mild temps actually near ‘normal’.  With increasing winds, it will eel chillier than yesterday.

 

 



 

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY January 14

Normal Low in Baltimore:  24ºF

Record -2ºF in 1912

 

Normal High in Baltimore: 41ºF

Record 79ºF 1932

 

Saturday Temperatures 

Morning

 

Afternoon

 

Looking Ahead: Winter Storm

Saturday Set Up

The latest forecast plot shows the Low Pressure in southeast Arkansa at 1 PM. This is a location I will be watching for verification. Slight adjustments of time or location of that Low is a big part of the eventual track and snow/rain line for us Sunday. 

 



 

European Model Animation:

January-14-weather-forecast-winter-storm-weekend

 

Sunday Afternoon

Plan for snow arriving in our region between 2 PM (south) to 6 PM north.  Once it arrives, it will become heavy quickly.

This will help tell us how extensive that arctic air is, which will be tough to budge. The ice storm in the Carolinas may be more of an issue into the Mid Atlantic if the cold hangs longer.

The track of this Low AFTER turning the corner up north is when anexpected snow/rain line will be more confident. That is due to knowing the track of that storm path when in our direction. 

 

 

Model Comparison 

The GFS and European Models are very close with the storm plot. Still some subtle differences. Seeing this similarly now helps support the data ingested has been reliable.

There are still subtle differences.

There is still a chance for a shift 50 to 100 miles that can dramatically adjust expected snow totals.

Sunday Afternoon

 

Sunday Night

 

Monday Early Morning

Still a difference of Low location by about 50 miles, and where the impact snow will still be falling. 

 

Winter Storm Watch: National Weather Service

Highest Impact Zones With Most Snow

These are areas most likely to get OVER 6 inches of snow.  The places that stay all snow in the mountains will get over 12 inches of snow.

This will be upgraded to a WARNING when within 24 hours of the start.

Many more areas will still get advisories issued for lower snow, and even wind impacts as we get closer.

 



 

My Storm Expectations

Still the same.

I will post my First Call For Snowfall Map today.

 

 

Regions

A:

Most likely all snow. Totals where that happens can easily be over 10 inches.

B:

Colder with more snow and sleet for longer.

Moderate totals until change over. Impact Sunday evening and night.

Still potential to mix to rain overnight.

Transition region! Slight change in track will determine a lot more or less snow.

C:

Starts as snow Sunday afternoon to evening. Faster Change over to rain, perhaps by midnight.

Rain Monday morning, may end with some snow showers.

D:

Most likely all rain and strong winds.

 

7 Day Forecast

 

 

 

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ALSO SEE

 

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

 

ALL FITF GEAR

 

 

 

FITF THUNDERSNOW

 

 

 

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

 

 

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

 

 

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

 

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

 

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

 

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

 

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

 

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

 

Winter Folklore Checklist

 

 

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter: @JustinWeather

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