January 12 A Little Thaw Then Focus On Strong Storm End Of Weekend

Wednesday January 12 2022

This morning is still cold, but with light wind it should feel better. In fact, a little warming to the 40s for many areas over the next couple of days may help take the sting out of the air. 

Next Up: That strong storm is expected at the end of the weekend. It looks more likely there will be an event, but still a big split on track and resulting snow or rain. 

Morning Set Up

Surface Weather

Not much action on the map. A cold start, but High Pressure is dominating much of the Eastern US.

Temperatures 

Afternoon Temperatures

Temps will thaw for most of the region into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY January 12

Normal Low in Baltimore:  24ºF

Record 1ºF in 1981

Normal High in Baltimore: 41ºF

Record 70ºF 2020

Thursday  Temperatures 

Morning

Afternoon

Looking Ahead: Winter Storm

Jet Stream

This snapshot shows the deep trough and Upper Level Low right over our region Monday morning. 

The signal is there for a storm. The specifics of the track are less certain.

Storm Animation

European Model

Friday to Monday

This looks VERY IMPRESSIVE. It develops a storm that rides up The Chesapeake Bay Monday morning.  

Note: The energy is currently over the Pacific Ocean and this particular storm has not formed yet. 

This is only one solution, and a closer looks highlights how much the results can vary. 

European Model

Early Monday morning we can see this latest solution bringing heavy snow inland and rain along and east to the Bay. In between could be anything from a slushy snow to icy mix.   

Yesterday this model had the storm well off the coast. I expect there will be more fluctuation in plots over the net few days. 

It’s still too early… 

GFS:

This Model also changed a lot and now brings the Low well inland for a rain event. 

Also expect this to vary widely.

Still NOT in agreement and still too early for specifics.

This is the time frame to pay attention and start a backup contingency plan for Sunday and Monday events.

7 Day Forecast

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