May 8 After Morning Storms Summer Heat This Afternoon
Wednesday, May 8 Morning Report This morning, a line of thunderstorms developed across central Pennsylvania to parts of north central Maryland. This is part of a trough in the atmosphere,…
Wednesday January 5, 2022
Afternoon Update
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of our region by the area National Weather Service Offices. This has been expected, but does add some addition credibility for decision making.
In this post, the Advisory map, as well as expected timing for the arrival. I have also include a new simulation slider from the European Model you can control to see timing.
I will post my First Call For Snowfall in my next report this evening. But the general idea is a 2 to 4 inch snowfall. The timing supports delays for schools. But I suspect the end of the snow should allow roads to be cleared to get in late.
Expectations:
- This will arrive AFTER 6 PM Thursday in western areas.
- Heaviest around midnight in metro areas.
- Ending for most by sunrise Friday.
- Enough snow to shovel or plow
- Not nearly as intense as the last event.
- More areas on the north end will be included this time.
Winter Weather Advisory
Set Up
A little phasing expected between the system North of Denver and southern branch energy seen near Dallas/Oklahoma City.
Radar Simulation —> slider
European ECMWF Model
5 PM Thursday to 8 AM Friday
Arrival Time:
From the NWS Baltimore/Washington Office
Click the image to also see NWS Snow maps for all NWS Offices in the Mid Atlantic.
Snapshot at 1 AM Friday
Temperatures
It will be cold enough for stickage. The ground is suffering to support it as well as the air, so more of what falls can be considered to the total results.
NAM 3 Km Model
The track of the Low on this solution is a little farther north. A simple adjustment of 30 to 50 miles (before the storm forms) can make or break the impact on the north AND south end.
COMPARE TO
GFS Model
There is still a target of the most in the same snow zones that needs to be considered.
Snowfall Potential
- These are guides but NOT PERFECT and should not be considered absolute.
- Models often over estimate how much will be measured on the ground.
- There are more models to consider, along with dry air on north side.
NAM 3 Km Model
More snow on north side, but shaves off the southern Maryland results.
COMPARE TO
GFS Model
Similar layout for the top zone to last time.
There is more spread on the norther suburbs of Baltimore into southern PA.
*Still the influence of dry air to be considered for less to accumulate on north side., and where that may set up.
Notes:
- This looks like a general 2 to 4 inch event.
- The NAM is tracking NORTH… Which will include more that missed out last time, but also brings warmer air to the southern zones.
- GFS is right on with a near repeat or Atmospheric Memory in the top snow zone, but limits impact in Baltimore’s northern ‘burbs.
- I am sharing models, which I know many other outlets now do as well.
- I hope this helps to give you and idea of what to expect.
- Now I get to work on more specifics, and will post my First Call Map later today.
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ALSO SEE
What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow
ALL FITF GEAR
Winter Outlook Series:
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow
Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print
Signals For Early Start To Winter In November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
