May 7 Warming Up With Only Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms
Tuesday, May 7 Morning Report We are entering a period of warming with less rain for a few days. We will still see some isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up…
My First Call For Snowfall Thursday Evening Friday Morning
Maryland Weather
Winter Weather
Forecast
Warnings
Wednesday Evening Update
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include more of southern Pennsylvania. What that means locally is that there is more of a buffer for this snow event to fill in for areas that missed out on Monday. This includes north central Maryland and southern Pennsylvania. But once again the top spot may be south in ‘some’ of the same areas hit hard in Monday’s snow storm.
The timing supports delays for schools. It may arrive sooner, then end sooner as well. Most of this will fall overnight, and end by sunrise.
In this post I have my first call for snowfall. I did mention earlier that I expect this to be a general 2 to 4 inch snowfall. My map below shows my LOW END CONFIDENT ZONE.
Winter Weather Advisory – Updated Map
Expectations:
- This will arrive AFTER 6 PM Thursday in western areas.
- Heaviest around midnight in metro areas.
- Ending for most by sunrise Friday.
- Enough snow to shovel or plow
- Not as intense as the last event.
- Northern areas get in on this.
Set Up: Wednesday Evening
A little phasing expected between the system North of Denver and southern branch energy seen near Dallas/Oklahoma City.
The new storm will take form Thursday. I expanded on the development in this afternoon report.
Radar Simulation —> slider
Updated NAM 3 Km
My First Call For Snowfall
Reminder: This is my most confident number at this time.
I like to begin on the low end, with upside potential.
If there is more support for higher totals, I will include that in my Final Call.
*It is better to start lower and build up if needed.
UPDATE THURSDAY MORNING
Click to see: New Data = I INCREASED My Call For Snowfall
Thoughts:
Most of our region can expect the upper end to the 1″ to 3″.
The + is for upside potential.
The top zones for up to 4 inches or higher will be in the mountains of western Maryland and west of I-81. Also in the top zone from Monday around Washington to Annapolis and Easton.
Snapshot at 1 AM Friday
Temperatures
It will be cold enough for stickage. The ground is suffering to support it as well as the air, so more of what falls can be considered to the total results.
My Notes:
- This looks like a general 2 to 4 inch event, but at this time it’s conservative to expect 1 to 3 inches for most with higher expectations.
- The NAM is tracking NORTH… Which will include more that missed out last time, but also brings warmer air to the southern zones.
Weather posts straight to your inbox
Sign up and be the first to know!
ALSO SEE
What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow
ALL FITF GEAR
Winter Outlook Series:
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow
Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print
Signals For Early Start To Winter In November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media
Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
Twitter: @JustinWeather
Instagram: justinweather
