Winter Weather Advisory Wednesday Morning

Tuesday Afternoon Update

A light band of precipitation will be developing along the coast early Wednesday morning. The concern is that temperatures will be near or below freezing, but snow has chilled the ground in many areas that got hit on Monday. 

The cloud should be mild enough to drop light rain, but it may freeze on contact to form a light glaze. 

Winter Weather Advisory

This includes most of the same counties near and east of I-95 that were under a Winter Storm Warning yesterday.

I’ve included the time for each region to show the impact from southern Maryland, anyone traveling between Baltimore to  Philadelphia and New York up I-95. There it will be an issue a little later. 

Temperatures 

The HRRR Model shows the coldest potential readings in the morning. 

The ground has cooled sufficiently, and will have time tonight for the surface to be colder than the air.

Light Freezing Rain?

It is important to note that the models  DO NOT tend to perform well with light precipitation. So this product can be deceiving. That is why I want to show a few plots for contrast. 

Light precipitation can fall with temps near freezing, and land on ground that can be colder. This is more common in the early morning hours.

HRRR Model 

NAM 3 Km (from this morning )

The back edge of this icing event will be cutting through metro Baltimore. This plot is west of the Advisory area. It is worth paying close attention to allow a buffer for where this sets up…

NAM 3 Km

Animation from afternoon run

This shifted the band of precipitation a little farther east. Again, I do not want to lock in on this as being the final track.  There still may be some impact in the areas shown in the earlier image.

Please see my notes below this loop.

NOTES:

I am not a fan of off hour runs… That is the model generation not using the full suite of weather balloon data at 7 AM and 7 PM.   These intermediate plots can miss or shift something and then bump back… So I will be sharing another update this evening. 

This will be a light event. With ice it can be the little ones that can cause a big problem. That is what I want to make sure you pay attention. 

Also see

Next Snow Friday: My Thoughts From This Afternoon

NEW ITEM: FITF THUNDERSNOW SHIRTS

ALSO SEE

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

ALL FITF GEAR

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist