Wimpy Winter Weather Wednesday Means No Worry

December 7 2021- Mid Day Update

I spoke with my buddy and former colleague Tony Pann this morning. He was driving in to WBAL and will be mentioning what I am about to tell you on his podcast today: He said,  “If it doesn’t snow tomorrow, I am not going outside.”  I understand!

We were not the only ones tracking this ‘light’ snow. Crews have put brine down on roads in parts of Carroll County, MD, possibly in other area. They get their info from NWS which has also been monitoring snow. 

There will be some light snow in the region on Wednesday,  but currently this ‘event’ is looking more wimpy than anything.  At this juncture one day away, I am downgrading expectations (from a coating to 1 inch) to little if anything.  There will be school as normal. I didn’t expect otherwise. But, I share in the disappointment which I’ll explain below. 

I focused my messaging to address the warmer ground influencing roads in metro areas to downplay the impact. But with potential for stickage on the grass, anything less will look like missed call. 

The excitement of the first snow still resonates with many of us. The potential of any impact is the reality. Aside from writing here and on social media, I have an obligation to my clients that range from school planning to snow removal. 

I’ve kept them in the loop with trends, even this downgrade. 

I spent the morning contacting all of them to call off any need for plans tomorrow. One client spends $250,000 in winter prep for materials and loading plows on trucks. So, there is pressure to get it right. They are ready when it hits, but it won’t be needed this time. 

My Updates On My First Call Map

While downplaying this, I will still do an evening nowcasting update.

We have watched this early dance of models showing snow for many days. I had snow showers on my forecast since last Thursday, but only in the past two days did the anticipation build. 

I admit my part in this play. I had to give some credit to the upgraded GFS Model. But while this was the most aggressive,  I still remained on the cautious and much lower with my call of a dusting to 1 inch.

So when that model led the charge with steady snow, while the ECMWF was fading, it was hard to ignore. As recently as yesterday, the GFS showed 1 to 3 inches of snow in metro Baltimore. 

I showed that in my report last night, but didn’t bite on it. I stayed with a coating to 1 inch. Even that now looks less likely. 

Water Vapor Satellite Loop

At first glance this afternoon it looks like a good set up. But the parts that need to come together to develop, may link up a little later and father east.

Latest European Model Compared to GFS Model

While both light events, there is too much difference  just one day away. We would like a little more agreement at this time.  The raises more questions.

The timing of the northern trough with the southern moisture is shown to team, however later. This allows the push south and east.

One glimmer of hope to watch flakes falling are shown on the European Model.  The GFS has pushed this farther south and east, out of the central Maryland reach. 

I still see there will be some middle ground when verified.

Learning Process

Each season I see a new set of conditions to factor and learn from. I look for patterns to apply in my forecasting. I have already had hesitation with recent computer guidance accuracy, which I’ve mentioned many times. 

The issue a lot of us meteorologists have, relate to concerns with the American GFS Model. It is one of many model guidance solutions I view, but as I mentioned in my winter outlook:  I have seen errors in all the model support.

This GFS has often played 2nd place to the leading European ECMWF model.

But, GFS got a $505M upgrade budget in 2020. One upgrade to the modeling came in March. Two supercomputers costing $105M will be operational in 2022. We could use it now!

Recent Upgrades

• July 2017 GFS Model was upgraded in. 
• 2018 the processing power was increased to 8.4 petaflops. 
• 2019 NOAA upgraded the GFS with a dew dynamical core: GFDL. This was the former experimental FV3.
• March 2021 upgraded with GFSv16

What do we have to show for this? Why is it still lagging behind the ECMWF Model?

• I will continue to show you the model guidance I see while also sticking to my initial plan this season:
• I will NOT endorse any storm prospect more than 7 days away. Many of those don’t play out. 
• I am more likely to start discussing a storm within 5 days.
• I will continue to question modeling and not use any one as gospel. I have already shown errors in timing with many rain events in Autumn. 
• My forecasts are my interpretation and will likely differ from the model guidance until I am proven otherwise. 

See the NWS Snow Forecasts for MD/PA/NJ/DE/NoVA and WV

Click the image for the resource page

Note: There are ‘official’, high and low snow maps to view.

Also, the Pennsylvania mapping only is for 24 hours and at last check did not include the event yet.

Also see:

Chesapeake Bay Water Temps

Click the image for all water forecast maps

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist