Tuesday December 7
Baltimore reached 70ºF yesterday, and this morning has dropped the near freezing. That new winter air mass will continue to flow in today as the afternoon with be 25 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday.
The big question is about the snow. I know there has been a lot of talk here about this event, as the excitement for the ‘first snow’ is real. This has always been for ‘light snow’ and marginal temps likely to make for wet pavement in metro areas.
But what will actually fall? The overnight model package has a twist. The collection of models that pushed it, pulled back, BUT the European Model (history of most accurate) has taken the lead. Still on the light side. Here’s a look.
I will have my final call for snowfall in my mid day report.
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Morning Surface Weather
The leading edge of colder air has pushed in this morning. It will continue to settle in during the day, with the fast upper level winds streaming in bands of clouds.
Those clouds may help determine if metro areas stay in the 30s or reach the lower 40s.
The clipper type system with light snow is on the ride, but it needs to team up with the souther brach to enhance the snow.
Timing the alignment has been the main issue. When and where the happens will result in the band of light snow on Wednesday. That timing is not the same on the computer model guidance, which is why we have had a spread of forecast plots.
Morning Temperatures
Morning Water Vapor Satellite Loop
Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Tracking this view today will help signal how things may play out tomorrow. It will also make or break any daytime heating support from the low angle December sun. More clouds will keeps temps colder.
Afternoon Temperatures
The amount of cloud cover will determine if the upper 30s or lower 40s are reached in metro areas.
Weather Almanac: Climate Data
TODAY December 7
Normal Low in Baltimore: 30ºF
Record 6ºF in 2002
Normal High in Baltimore: 48ºF
Record 77ºF 1998
Wednesday Temperatures
Morning
The freezing line remains nearly in the same inland areas with topographical assist (elevation and distance from the warmer Bay).
Snow Animations
European Model: 4 AM to 7 PM Wednesday
If you recall, this model lost the snow recently, but now has taken the lead with a solution similar to the others. I still believe it is a few hours slow.
GFS Model: 1 AM to 7 PM Wednesday
This was the most aggressive push a recently as yesterday, and I am glad I did NOT go with its suggested snow totals. I do believe it is missing some of the light snow on this product.
I will have an update and new snow map in my mid day report.
7 Day Forecast
See the NWS Snow Forecasts for MD/PA/NJ/DE/NoVA and WV
Click the image for the resource page
Also see:
What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow
Winter Outlook Series:
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow
Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print
Signals For Early Start To Winter In November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
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