Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 01/16/2022 02:30:02 pm
Temperature

27°

Cloudy with Light Snow

15°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

61%

Feels Like

18°

Wind (NE)

9mph

Air Pressure

30.09

Sun
Sun Rise

07:23 AM

Sun Set

05:09 PM

Day Length

09:46 Hours

Difference

1 min 28 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

03:52 PM

Moon Set

06:40 AM

Next: Full Moon

Jan 17,2022

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

24°

41°

Average High
Record Low


(1893)

71°


(1953)
Record High
Current Conditions

My First Call For Snowfall And Model Maps This Wednesday

Outlook
Winter Weather
Forecast

December 6 2021- Evening Update

It’s time to put up some numbers!  Baltimore hit 70ºF today, so I understand the doubt many have that we can get snow in less than two days. This will be the first snow event of the season for much of the region. Notice I carefully used the word ‘event’ and not storm, but it will be noteworthy.

In my last snow update, I showed the impact of the warm Chesapeake Bay water temps on the nearby areas. But the air temps are forecast to drop to freezing near Baltimore and inland. So the battle line for stickage has been drawn. 

In this report I have included the latest model maps from the Canadian GEM and European ECMWF.  I have also included Snow Forecast Plots from four models to compare. Then we can look at my first call for snowfall.

In the mix of forecasting and communication, I read and listen to many comments. 

I am with the crew that gets excited about snow. FITF! But I am well aware not all share that sentiment. My wife is one of them. As for the people who want to doubt everything, they may never read this, so let’s just move on. 

 

UPDATE TUESDAY MORNING:

Click here to see new models with Euro taking the lead and GFS pulling back 

 

 

Computer Models

Canadian GEM:

4 AM to 7 PM Wednesday

This had faded the snow, but came back to join the GFS with the steady snow in central Maryland.

This shows the arrival by sunrise, which would increase the chance for stickage. 

 

December-6-weather-forecast-snow-Canadian

European Model:

4 AM to 7 PM Wednesday

This continues to the the party pooper. This solution is due to a flatter trough and later arrival of the northern energy.

However, the timing and snow coverage has increased in this newer plot. It still is the weakest of the collection.

 

December-6-weather-forecast-snow-European

 

GFS Model —> slider

If you missed my last report, here is the American Model that has been the most consistent with the track for snow.

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Wednesday Temperatures

Based on the GFS Model

This actually shows temps dropping to near freezing and holding all day in central MD

Morning

I am showing 10 AM to get the impact of conditions after sunrise.

The hourly plots show temps dropping to freezing with snow falling… after a start in the mid 30s for metro Baltimore.

 

 

Afternoon

Temperatures remain near freezing all day… with colder 20s post snow north…. And just above freezing south of I-95

 

 

 

Snow Forecast ‘Model’ Maps —-> slider

Order from least to most amount of snow.

*Not all that falls will stick. The regions in central/southern Maryland and Delmarva will compete with warmer ground and melting.

 

december-6-weather-snow-forecast-wednesday-ecmwf
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My First Call For Snowfall

I’ve plotted this closely to the my prior ‘expectation’ map.

My thinking continues to bases a lot of elevation and distance from the Bay.

Also See: Maryland Snow: The influence of water and topography

Climatology suggests the colder inland areas may support some stickage on the roads, but closer to the cities and south it will likely not. 

 

 

Notes:

The timing of our wether events over the past few months has arrived earlier than model forecasts. Should this happen again, then more dark hours before dawn may help with some stickage. 

Air temps will be near freezing Tuesday, and most of Wednesday. There is some heat retained int he ground AND influence from the warmer Bay waters. This is more of a factor around the cities, along and south of I-95, and within a 5 to 10 miles of the Bay.

 

See the NWS Snow Forecasts for MD/PA/NJ/DE/NoVA and WV

Click the image for the resource page

Note: There are ‘official’, high and low snow maps to view.

Also, the Pennsylvania mapping only is for 24 hours and at last check did not include the event yet.

 

Also see:

 

Chesapeake Bay Water Temps

Click the image for all water forecast maps

 

 

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

 

 

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

 

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

 

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

 

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

 

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

 

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

 

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

 

Winter Folklore Checklist

 

 

 

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