May 3 Cooler Today Then More Rain Expected This Weekend
Friday May 3 Morning Report Another record high of 90ºF was reached yesterday at BWI. This tied the mark set in 2018. Today, a cooler wind will bring us closer…
Monday November 29 2021
In my afternoon report I mentioned the phrase: The trend is your friend. Well, the trend for these little weather systems to expand more into Maryland is holding true. I believe the speed is a factor as well.
In short, light snow is more likely tomorrow morning, and it may arrive before sunrise. Faith in the Flakes! It’s trying to bring another show, and this will be similar to the weekend event.
While I write this to share in the excitement of those anxious to see a little snow, I am also writing for those who don’t want it to NOT FREAK OUT or be surprised.
My morning update will be earlier on Tuesday with the progress on the clipper.
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Monday Evening Weather
The snow breaking out ahead of the Clipper has been expanding quite a bit across Ohio this evening. This is really looking a lot more like the weekend event. It is also looking like once again this may be moving in faster than model guidance is suggesting.
Snow Simulation —> 5 AM to 2 PM
The NAM 3 Km has been most sensitive to the light snow.
- There may be more than this verified on radar, with flurries expanding a bit farther south and east.
- This update shows the cluster moving into metro Baltimore between 8 AM and 10 AM
- If the bias holds, we could see flakes around the Beltway earlier… before sunrise (7 AM)
Note:
If you are traveling in PA along the Penn Turnpike or north, there may be some impact on roads during the morning commute.
For the snow near Philadelphia to The Poconos and metro NY, it may be late enough for some warming to not be an issue for travel.
Temperatures
Tuesday Morning
The only concern I see is the big IF:
IF this arrives between 1 and 3 hours faster than suggested, it will have time to catch up to the cold air, especially west and north of I-95/Beltway.
At most that might support a coating on ‘some’ roads. But there is not a lot of moisture.
I would not be surprised to see a coating on grass, car tops, and elevated surfaces.
Noon
Most of the region will be above freezing by noon.
Afternoon
Jet Stream Vorticity:
Upper level energy will swing through in the morning. This is what will enhance the chance for snow showers or flurries to arrive
Snow Simulation On Other Models
European Model
GFS Model
This lowers the amounts and retreats the coverage father north.
Related Pages:
NOAA Winter Weather Maps
Snow and Ice Forecasts From Area NWS Offices
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Also see:
What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow
Winter Outlook Series:
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow
Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print
Signals For Early Start To Winter In November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
