Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 01/16/2022 02:20:02 pm
Temperature

26°

Cloudy

14°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

60%

Feels Like

16°

Wind (NE)

10mph

Air Pressure

30.12

Sun
Sun Rise

07:23 AM

Sun Set

05:09 PM

Day Length

09:46 Hours

Difference

1 min 28 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

03:52 PM

Moon Set

06:40 AM

Next: Full Moon

Jan 17,2022

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

24°

41°

Average High
Record Low


(1893)

71°


(1953)
Record High
Current Conditions

Model Update On Tuesday Morning Snow More Supportive

Winter Weather
Forecast

Monday November 29 2021

In my afternoon report I mentioned the phrase: The trend is your friend. Well, the trend for these little weather systems to expand more into Maryland is holding true. I believe the speed is a factor as well.  

In short, light snow is more likely tomorrow morning, and it may arrive before sunrise. Faith in the Flakes! It’s trying to bring another show, and this will be similar to the weekend event.

While I write this to share in the excitement of those anxious to see a little snow, I am also writing for those who don’t want it to NOT FREAK OUT or be surprised. 

My morning update will be earlier on Tuesday with the progress on the clipper.

 

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Monday Evening Weather

The snow breaking out ahead of the Clipper has been expanding quite a bit across Ohio this evening. This is really looking a lot more like the weekend event. It is also looking like once again this may be moving in faster than model guidance is suggesting. 

 

 

Snow Simulation —> 5 AM to 2 PM

The NAM 3 Km has been most sensitive to the light snow. 

  • There may be more than this verified on radar, with flurries expanding a bit farther south and east.
  • This update shows the cluster moving into metro Baltimore between 8 AM and 10 AM
  • If the bias holds, we could see flakes around the Beltway earlier… before sunrise (7 AM)

 

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Note:
If you are traveling in PA along the Penn Turnpike or north, there may be some impact on roads during the morning commute.
For the snow near Philadelphia to The Poconos and metro NY, it may be late enough for some warming to not be an issue for travel.

Temperatures

Tuesday Morning

The only concern I see is the big IF:

IF this arrives between 1 and 3 hours faster than suggested, it will have time to catch up to the cold air, especially west and north of I-95/Beltway. 

At most that might support a coating on ‘some’ roads. But there is not a lot of moisture.

I would not be surprised to see a coating on grass, car tops, and elevated surfaces. 

 

 

Noon

Most of the region will be above freezing by noon.

 

 

Afternoon 

 



 

Jet Stream Vorticity:

Upper level energy will swing through in the morning. This is what will enhance the chance for snow showers or flurries to arrive

 

November-29-weather-jet-stream-vorticity

 

Snow Simulation On Other Models

European Model

 

GFS Model

This lowers the amounts and retreats the coverage father north. 

 

Related Pages:

NOAA Winter Weather Maps

Snow and Ice Forecasts From Area NWS Offices

 

 

 

ALL FITF APPAREL 20% OFF

Until Midnight for CYBER MONDAY

Discount applies at checkout

 

Also see:

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

 

 

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

 

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

 

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

 

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

 

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

 

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

 

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

 

Winter Folklore Checklist

 

 

 

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Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

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