Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 01/16/2022 01:30:03 pm
Temperature

24°

Cloudy

11°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

57%

Feels Like

12°

Wind (NE)

13mph

Air Pressure

30.17

Sun
Sun Rise

07:23 AM

Sun Set

05:09 PM

Day Length

09:46 Hours

Difference

1 min 28 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

03:52 PM

Moon Set

06:40 AM

Next: Full Moon

Jan 17,2022

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

24°

41°

Average High
Record Low


(1893)

71°


(1953)
Record High
Current Conditions

Light Snow Or Flurries Tuesday Morning From Another Clipper

Winter Weather
Forecast

Monday November 29 2021

The trend is your friend. This is one of the most common sayings in the meteorological community and it applies in many ways. 

While in this early winter weather pattern, it appears the sequence of Clippers keeps passing to our north. That was the case Saturday night, and will be the case again Tuesday morning. 

Here is a look at a few computer models showing the likely coverage for light snow.  However I must add in the themes I’ve noticed with many weather events over the past few months:

  • This is not a major event, but will be enough for kids and kids at heart to want to race to the window.  That’s important enough for this big kid to write about. 
  • If you are traveling north into central PA or west to Garrett County/WV this may impact some roads during the early commute.
  • There will be more on radar than these models suggest. This means more places may get snowflakes in view across central Maryland.
  • Also, these models have been running slow. So we may once again see this arrive a few hours earlier than suggested. 

Monday Afternoon Surface Weather

The main circulation with this clipper will pass through the Great Lakes into New York State. This north track is not optimal for us to get snow on the south end. but the upper level energy will also some moisture to develop and push through the mountains. However, the terrain will play play a classic role in how it tracks.

 

 

Jet Stream Vorticity:

Upper level energy will swing through in the morning. This is what will enhance the chance for snow showers or flurries to arrive 

The main enemy will pivot through central Maryland and southern PA between 4 AM and 1 PM.

The best chance for snow showers will be before and up to sunrise. Some flurries may linger into the early afternoon.

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Radar Simulation –> slider

5 AM to 2 PM NAM 3 Km Model

I’ve highlighted the areas most likely to get light snow falling.

There may be more coverage seen on radar with flurries expanded south into metro Baltimore (with no impact)

The best chance for snow showers will be before and up to sunrise. Some flurries may linger into the early afternoon.

 

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Temperatures Tuesday Morning

We need 32ºF or colder for stickage. This looks so similar to the set up this weekend. Which also means that even with light snow, the stickage is more likely on grassy areas and elevated surfaces. 

If you are traveling up to Harrisburg, along or north of the Penn Turnpike it may be worth paying attention to.

 

 

 

Snow Simulation On Other Models

European Model 4 AM to 10 AM

 

HRRR Model

This high resolution model is hyper sensitive. The light snow may last one to three hours, with some coating on the grass. But more flakes may fall as flurries around and south of the beltway for a brief period.  Some flurries could linger through lunchtime.

 



 

GFS Model 4 AM to 10 AM

This lowers the amounts and retreats the coverage father north. 

 

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Also See:

NOAA Winter Weather Maps

Snow and Ice Forecasts From Area NWS Offices

 

ALL FITF APPAREL 20% OFF

Today:  CYBER MONDAY

Discount applies at checkout

 

Also see:

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

 

 

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

 

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

 

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

 

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

 

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

 

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

 

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

 

Winter Folklore Checklist

 

 

 

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Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter: @JustinWeather

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