Tuesday November 16

The core of the cold air in this segment is moving out. We will modify a little today and then aim for one day this week near 70ºF.  This will be a wild ride, as a cold front will bring an abrupt change snd winter like pattern by the weekend into next week.

This is the active weather we expected, so there maybe some travel impact ahead of Thanksgiving. However, it is still too early to depict how rain and or snow may be spread between the Great Lakes to New England next week.  Will we get in on any flakes? I will begin to track the models on that tomorrow. 

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure is in settling in, and as it gets closer to the winds get lighter.  However, the upper level winds may still carry high clouds across our sky.  The BIG WARM UP is just a day or two away.

What to wear?

Gloves and hat this morning. Also time to warm up the car. But just s light jacket this afternoon. 

Morning Temperatures

Cloud Forecast

Clouds will mix in across the sky, and might dim out the sun at times.

Afternoon Temperatures 

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY November 16

Normal Low in Baltimore:  37ºF

Record 19ºF in 1996

Normal High in Baltimore: 56ºF

Record 79ºF 2005

Wednesday Temps

Morning

Afternoon 

Thursday Big Swing!

Temps jump to near 70ºF, then crash overnight.   This will come with a cold front the will surge in strong storms, then strong winds for the Northwest.

Looking Ahead: Jet Stream

Blue = Cold

Orange = Warm

Big changes over the next week to 10 days. Big Warm up on Thursday, then the surge of cold air on Friday. There will be a surge of arctic air to establish a trough in the eastern US early next week.

This screams ‘storm’ but it’s early to call the details. At this time, it looks like the storm timing will be Monday and Tuesday… which will be then the colder air moves in.

There will be Lake Effect Snow impacting Cleveland to upstate New York for a few days to follow.

Next Monday

There will be an abrupt change, but the timing and specifics are likely to be adjusted as we get closer.

Temperatures

Arctic air will be moving in, which will spawn the active weather.

Storm Set Up

A large cold front will be extended from the Core Low in the Great Lakes. There may be more snow to follow, but still too early to suggest where, etc.

7 Day Forecast

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist

Faith in the Flakes Gear