November 5 Warm Election Day And Tropical Storm Rafael May Bring Needed Rain
November 5, 2024 Election Day Tuesday Morning Report It's still dry, but there are areas of fog and low clouds around the Chesapeake Bay and to the south. Today will…
November 16 Big Warm Up Then Strong Storms This Week
Forecast
Tuesday November 16
The core of the cold air in this segment is moving out. We will modify a little today and then aim for one day this week near 70ºF. This will be a wild ride, as a cold front will bring an abrupt change snd winter like pattern by the weekend into next week.
This is the active weather we expected, so there maybe some travel impact ahead of Thanksgiving. However, it is still too early to depict how rain and or snow may be spread between the Great Lakes to New England next week. Will we get in on any flakes? I will begin to track the models on that tomorrow.
Morning Surface Weather
High Pressure is in settling in, and as it gets closer to the winds get lighter. However, the upper level winds may still carry high clouds across our sky. The BIG WARM UP is just a day or two away.
What to wear?
Gloves and hat this morning. Also time to warm up the car. But just s light jacket this afternoon.
Morning Temperatures
Cloud Forecast
Clouds will mix in across the sky, and might dim out the sun at times.
Afternoon Temperatures
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Weather Almanac: Climate Data
TODAY November 16
Normal Low in Baltimore: 37ºF
Record 19ºF in 1996
Normal High in Baltimore: 56ºF
Record 79ºF 2005
Wednesday Temps
Morning
Afternoon
Thursday Big Swing!
Temps jump to near 70ºF, then crash overnight. This will come with a cold front the will surge in strong storms, then strong winds for the Northwest.
Looking Ahead: Jet Stream
Blue = Cold
Orange = Warm
Big changes over the next week to 10 days. Big Warm up on Thursday, then the surge of cold air on Friday. There will be a surge of arctic air to establish a trough in the eastern US early next week.
This screams ‘storm’ but it’s early to call the details. At this time, it looks like the storm timing will be Monday and Tuesday… which will be then the colder air moves in.
There will be Lake Effect Snow impacting Cleveland to upstate New York for a few days to follow.
Next Monday
There will be an abrupt change, but the timing and specifics are likely to be adjusted as we get closer.
Temperatures
Arctic air will be moving in, which will spawn the active weather.
Storm Set Up
A large cold front will be extended from the Core Low in the Great Lakes. There may be more snow to follow, but still too early to suggest where, etc.
7 Day Forecast
Winter Outlook Series:
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow
Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print
Signals For Early Start To Winter In November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
Faith in the Flakes Gear
