March 13, 2023
Monday Morning
I hope you are all set with all of your clocks adjusted. The time change will be noticeable this morning with more dark time for the commute, but remaining light after 7 PM.
As for the weather, a major winter storm is just starting to form on the coast. We have light rain showers on the edge, and will remain on the edge of this. Last night I wrote a report about how this storm will retrograde/back up to the New England Coast. There is BUST potential on both ends of this with such a strong storm and strong track. I do not envy forecasters in New England/metro New York. We may get some snow showers or flurries just for our northern zones.
The new storm is forming off the North Carolina Coast. This is expected to swing out into the Atlantic, then LOOP BACK (Retrograde) to near Boston. There is a blocking pattern in the North Atlantic that will help.
Light snow/sleet showing up west of Frederick to ‘near’ Hagerstown and Martinsburg, WV.
This storm will be STRONG and Retrograde back WEST to The Gulf of Maine. Depending on the location and intensity, places like Boston should go from rain to near Blizzard Conditions.
Also deepening on the retrograde will determine if flurries and or snow showers can reach into southern Pennsylvania and North/Northeastern Maryland.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 33ºF
Record 12ºF in 1888
SNOW: 11.3” in 1993 – The SUPERSTORM
Normal High in Baltimore: 54ºF
Record 85ºF in 1990
This will be a blustery day. Gusts to 40 mph for our region on ‘the edge’ of that large storm affecting New England.
Coastal Rain and inland Snow for New England.
Locally we may have snow showers or flurries.
If there is going to be a blizzard, it will be raging at this time across coastal New England.
This is the BUST for where that snow sets up. Last night I showed how it may try to clip Northeastern Maryland. Today it does not look as close, but I would still not rule out any more adjustments with the uncertainty of the precise plot.
This is what we are missing out on… Many areas between The Poconos and central Massachusetts may get between 1 and 2 FEET of snow!
I have our northern suburbs ‘on the edge’. There may be snow falling, but stickage and accumulation will be challenging with the warm ground.
We will definitely get wind from that storm, but the cold air will be marginal/seasonal.
A big warm up will reach us later this week.
My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.
I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
