Wind Advisory Tuesday From Major East Coast Storm
March 13, 2023
Monday Afternoon Update
The largest winter storm of the season is now under development. This Nor’easter is going to be a very strong weather event with a large impact across the North East and Mid Atlantic regions. Inland areas will have blizzard conditions. Regardless of where the snow or rain reaches, the wind will be the main player for our region.
The pressure gradient of the new storm will produce increasing winds on Tuesday into Wednesday with gusts up to 50 mph. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued in Maryland, Pennyslvania and Delaware.
Wind Advisory Tuesday to Wednesday
There is some fluctuation of the timing between the National Weather Service Office Zones, but essentially our entire region will have winds over 30 mph, with gusts to 50 mph. This may produce downed trees and power outages.
Wind Forecast Animation
8 PM Mon to 8 PM Tue
Winds will increase Tuesday morning and remain strong all day!
Wind Forecast Snapshot
Strong winds from the Northwest will average 20 to 40 mph. Gusts will push close to 50 mph… and last all day!
Afternoon Surface Weather
Low Pressure is located East of Virginia Beach, VA. This is forecast to swing out to the East and Northeast, influenced by Blocking High Pressure in Nova Scotia. That is a key element that may help this pull back West to the Gulf of Maine as it bottoms out!
Jet Stream: Today Evening to Wednesday Morning
Track the Core Energy passing through southern Pennsylvania on Tuesday morning, then slowing down and nearly stalling for 12 hours just east of Boston.
Jet Stream Snapshot
The Upper Level Low will be just north of Baltimore at this time. That is the reason the storm East of Boston is expected to get pulled back west AND have influence of snow showers plus strong winds into Maryland.
8 PM MON to 8 AM WED – GFS Model
Low Pressure: Watch the wide turn in the Atlantic, then the pull back near Boston. This is in response to the Upper Level closed Low and deep trough.
If this storm nearly stalls or retrogrades farther back to the West, will be the big BUST potential.
Tuesday Morning Snapshot
Low Pressure EAST of Boston will continue to deepen. The retrograde (pull backward to the WEST) will determine if and when Boston and coastal areas transition from rain to snow. The large influence of this storm will be felt into the Mid Atlantic.
Snow Showers may push into northern Maryland.
Strong Winds will expand through the region to the Mid Atlantic Coast.
Radar Simulation 8 PM Mon to 8 PM Tue
As we watch the storm crank in New England, the back edge will send snow showers or flurries into northern Maryland on Tuesday Morning.
The influence of the core, ‘comma head’, main precipitation will depend on how far west that Retrograde can make it.
6 AM NAM 3 Km Model
This shows agreement with the HRRR Model. Often the flurries expand to more areas than shown on the model… but not expected to be a travel issue.
NEXT REPORT: This Evening
I will have more detail about the snow part of this storm. I will include snow forecast for the main impact zone and the potential snow showers for our region.
REPORT: March Snow and Extreme Weather History
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.
I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!
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