Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 03/20/2023 06:20:03 am




Dew Point
Relative Humidity


Feels Like


Wind (SW)


Air Pressure


Sun Rise

07:09 AM

Sun Set

07:18 PM

Day Length

12:09 Hours


2 min 35 sec gain

Moon Rise

06:53 AM

Moon Set

06:14 PM

Next: New Moon

Mar 21,2023

Moon Phase

Waning Crescent

Average Low



Average High
Record Low




Record High

COLD OUTLOOK FROM NOAA: My Practical Look At What This Means And Snow Skepticism

Winter Weather

March 4 2023

Saturday Night Update

In a recent report I shared the NOAA Outlook for a colder trend this month. That is very much a reality, and the bell is about to be rung on that. I have mentioned that it is possible some of that could include days similar to what we had this winter. That means it may be colder than average as we normally should be getting warmer. The real trick is if we can generate a full arctic blast to feed into a storm.

Jet Steam Forecast

Monday Morning March 6 to Tuesday Morning March 14

The Pacific cold storm track will be moving to the East Coast.

March 4 weather storm forecast jet stream


In my March Snow History I showed many examples of large snowstorms in Baltimore and the Northeast throughout the month. The largest was 22 inches of snow on March 29 in 1942. We can get stickage with snow even as the sun angle gets higher. It is just more challenging.

Here’s the thing: I have been bombarded with messages and requests to address the storm pattern regardless of my personal view. The cat is out of the bag with many other pages discussing all the parameters that could ‘do something’. This includes the full alphabet of Global Patterns like Negative NAO and AO, Positive AO, MJO moving to phase 8, and La Niña ending. All are true, but are they trying to team up and produce something?


Model Credibility Lacking

As meteorologists, we study the atmosphere and know how it works. Our forecasting is heavily reliant on computer guidance working the math out faster than any human can.

Imagine using the two most reliable computer guidance and they can’t even agree with snow plotting less than 3 days away.

Snow Early Tuesday March 7

This is not our event. It is to our north, so I can safely compare the two without much criticism:

The European ECMWF is showing this on the northern fringe of my forecast area… Reaching Harrisburg to Philadelphia. However, the GFS Model has rain for those cities and the snow closer to Scranton and north.


March 4 weather snow Tuesday ECMWF



March 4 weather snow Tuesday GFS


Before we look at the storm next weekend, let’s take a look at the temperatures.


NOAA Temperature Outlook

UPDATED MAPS: These are showing the odds of being below average, NOT how cold temps will be.

Day 6 to 10

Most of the nation will be trending Colder!

March 4 weather NOAA Outlook Temperatures Day 6 to 10


Day 8 to 14

The core of the cold air will reach the Gulf Coast states. For that region there is concern that early season blooms may be affected by morning frost and freezing temperatures.

We will be colder mid month as well. The question is how cold?!

March 4 weather NOAA Outlook Temperatures Day 8 to 14


Average March High Temperatures In Baltimore

BWI starts the month with a typical High of 50ºF on the 1st, and ends with a typical High of 60ºF by the 29th to 31st.

Having temps below these numbers would verify COLDER, but does not guarantee it will be cold enough to freeze, let alone have snow.

March 4 average high temperatures Baltimore


Temperature Forecast Next 10 Days

Comparing this forecast to the chart above, we can see the ‘Cooler’ temps during next week, even with mid 40s to near 50ºF.

The COLDER air is more likely next weekend and the week after, but even then there is only one long-term projection for a day in the 30s.

The morning Lows may drop below freezing many times, which could compromise the early flowers and tree buds.

March 4 temperature forecast Baltimore




If we can’t get an agreement on this, how can we trust a potential storm NEXT WEEKEND?

I showed the ECMWF Model yesterday with the potential snow event.  I was careful to highlight that I expected that forecast map to change. It has, and not to the liking of local snow lovers.


Friday Night to Sunday Night

March 4 weather storm forecast weekend



Saturday Night (From March 4)

This has changed a lot from my prior report. This model is now speeding the storm up AND shifting it north. Once again pushing the snow farther north.

March 4 weather Saturday winter storm



Sunday Morning MODEL UPDATE

For Saturday Night (From March 5)

Quite the shift South- AGAIN!!!!

March 5 winter storm snow plot Saturday evening




Take Away:

We will have a good chance of March feeling CHILLY!

Trending BELOW AVERAGE may bring more freezing mornings, but not guaranteed to be cold enough for storms to bring snow.

I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE in our computer guidance… Even a few days away. If you recall, I doubted them early in February which allowed me to call the little snow we did get.

I believe the forecast maps for next weekend will continue to change. I am showing them for posterity but not to trust. In fact, I think if we do end up getting snow this month, it will happen with an event the models MISS or may even plot south of us.

March has often brought surprises. Even in other warm and low snow winters, so we must continue to keep an open mind.

No Promises! I am just plugging along with you.


Subscribe for eMail Alerts

Weather posts straight to your inbox

Sign up and be the first to know!




(I share this on my email newsletter)

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and other occasional glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.

I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I made it that far without knowing, so don’t let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I kept it in my pocket hidden away until about 10 years ago.

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The auto-correct spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is able. I sincerely appreciate her for that.  At times, her edits could be AFTER you read my posts.

I accept this and perhaps it proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.



Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.


STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school


My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.


Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter


If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media