March 7 Cold Winds Now Flowing In Plus Two Winter Events To Watch

March 7, 2023

Tuesday Morning

Last night I wrote about that clipper crossing Pennsylvania which would bring them snow. I’ve seen some reports of 4 to 6 inches in the mountains and will do a comparison later to the model plots.  This may help show which is performing best to apply to our weekend event.

The promise today is that we will get cold winds! Gusts up to 35 mph will make the slightly cooler air feel colder and uncomfortable. The breeze and cooler trend will remain with us this week. Then our attention will be on the attempt for two winter type events Friday night and early next week.

Trivia: Our record high temperature for this date was set last year with a High of 79ºF in Baltimore.

Morning Temperatures

No records this morning. Colder air is flowing in…

Morning Surface Weather

Watching this clipper that brought snow to Pennsylvania. Colder winds have reached Maryland. There may be some flurries this morning, but no impact expected. The winds will remain strong all day and into tomorrow.

Wind Forecast

7 AM to 7 PM

Wind Snapshot

Steady winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Afternoon Temperatures 

Wind Chill

It will feel like a winter afternoon and uncomfortable for after school sports.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY March 7

Normal Low in Baltimore:  31ºF

Record 6ºF in 2015

SNOW: 10” in 1941

Normal High in Baltimore: 52ºF

Record 79ºF in 2022

This RECORD was last year!

REPORT: March Snow and Extreme Weather History

March Snow and Extreme Weather History

Wednesday

Morning

Afternoon

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK

Looking Ahead

Storm Development Friday Night

Let’s look at the Two Model Comparisons. The GFS AND ECMWF Models are still showing ‘something’ developing with a snow mix Friday night.

Please note that just showing snow/blue does not automatically infer stickage or a storm. This is simply for what may fall…

GFS Model:

Friday Morning to Saturday Evening

European Model:

Friday Evening to Tuesday Morning

This model also brings in the first wave Friday night, then a second stronger storm forming Monday on the coast.

Snapshots

FRIDAY NIGHT

GFS Model

This looks like a pass to the NORTH with Low Pressure. The blue into central Maryland is more like a suggestion of wet snow/mix. That is how I will treat it for now. The steady snow would be in the central Pennsylvania mountains where they have seen snow recently.

ECMWF Model

This brings the snow/mix farther south and about 6 hours later. I remain suspicious about this solution, but even if it verifies, it does NOT look like a concern for stickage or accumulation.

NEXT MONDAY

The European Model has been persistent with this solution, evolving a second wave that develops stronger on the coast.

I must remain skeptical, no matter how good this looks.  I have noticed the trend of systems verifying NORTH of what is originally shown.

I will continue to post this time frame to compare for consistency, trend, or another flip. I just have a hard time trusting storm plots after all the fails this winter.

7 Day Forecast

We will end up with a week of temperatures cooler than average, but not winter cold! This is the seasonal perspective I mentioned.

The weekend storm does not look like much for us now… and that Carrot for next week is simply for conversation. I am not putting much into it now.

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/21/winter-outlook-2023-from-noaa-very-different-than-farmers-almanacs/

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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