March 7, 2023
The clipper type weather system that moved through overnight and early this morning dropped the expected path of snow across Pennsylvania. I had been highlighting this event (just north of my general forecast area), for the primary purpose of seeing which model would perform best. I hypothesized that the winning model forecast with this event would jump to the top of the projections for the end of week weather event.
What I have gathered below has surprised me, and has forced me to rethink the potential snow for Friday…
This was Tweeted by The National Weather Service in Stage College, but for their Northern Tier.
It is a winter wonderland at the US-219/US-6 intersection in McKean County (Lantz Corners) this evening! Heavy snowfall rates have resulted in slick, snow-covered roads. Use caution if you’re traveling tonight!#PAwx pic.twitter.com/WsuYOpAohs
— NWS State College (@NWSStateCollege) March 7, 2023
This is a full view of my headline image showing the depth of snow on the ground this morning. This blends with previous snow in New York.
The collection from weather spotters with the National Weather Service. The base map may make it difficult to read.
Top snow was
This is the map I showed in my report last night. It was the higher end of totals, but very close to the coverage matched in the maps above.
COMPARE TO REPORT ABOVE
The snow band was forecast to reach into Maryland, and it did between 7 AM and 9 AM. Here is a look that confirms what many saw near Westminster and Mount Airy.
The brief coating was in Hanover (southern York County)
Hanover, PA pic.twitter.com/dD0JwyDfNY
— Brad Stickler (@BradStickler) March 7, 2023
The GFS gets the nod and will be taken more seriously with the next event. I was surprised given the many times it has overplayed storms and lost out to the European Model. While I still believe there is a bias too far south, I will be comparing this in my next report.
Here is a quick preview. I will explore more in my next report this evening.
This has sped up again, but also looking better organized for the arrival on Friday. It will have plenty of obstacles I will mention below.
This is NOT Ideal for 4 reasons
If you want snow, you want the track farther south than shown here. If this ends up north, it would diminish snow chances.
Stand by…. I will compare to other models and add further insight in my next report on this event.
This is still NOT set in stone and I expect more adjustments for timing and track.
My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
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I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
