Thursday March 31 Severe Storm Risk And Strong Winds

Thursday Morning Report

March is definitely trying to roar out like a lion.  The back end of the wild weather pattern will bring strong winds and a risk for storms to turn severe this afternoon and evening.  This all depends on if we can push the warmer air in place in time.

The largest concern I have received lately has been about the winds. We have two more days, including gusts today to 50 mph, which will try to bring in the warmer air.

Monday Morning Set Up

Surface Weather

This complex storm is the same system that produced a severe weather outbreak in the Southern US and Winter Storm across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes.

Rain showers will develop this morning, and winds will increase trying to pump in warmer air.  But it will have some work to do.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Wind Forecast

Steady winds will be 20 to 30 mph, with gusts UP TO 50 mph.

Afternoon Temperatures 

Radar Simulation Animation 10 AM to 8 PM

The slider you can control is below…

Severe Storm Risk

• We have a Level 2 or 5 chance for storms to turn severe.
• Main risk will be damming winds.
• Hail is more likely to be small.
• Tornado threat is low, but a brief spin up is possible based in hodograph analysis of wind sheer.

Radar Simulation Timeline —-> slider

12 PM to 8 PM

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY March 31

Seasonal Snow: 14.4”

Normal Low in Baltimore:  38ºF

Record 20º F in  1964

Normal High in Baltimore: 59ºF

Record 86ºF 1998

Friday 

Morning  Temperatures 

Afternoon

7 Day Forecast

• Winds continue Friday…
• Weekend back to bear normal…
• Next week we watch another storm arrive Tuesday into Wednesday 

ALSO SEE

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

ALL FITF GEAR

FITF THUNDERSNOW

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF