Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 09/29/2022 04:10:02 pm
Temperature

69°

Mostly Cloudy

45°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

42%

Feels Like

69°

Wind (NE)

13mph

Air Pressure

30.31

Sun
Sun Rise

07:01 AM

Sun Set

06:52 PM

Day Length

11:51 Hours

Difference

2 min 32 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

10:59 AM

Moon Set

09:01 PM

Next: First Quarter

Oct 02,2022

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

Climate
Average Low

54°

75°

Average High
Record Low

38°


(1951)

90°


(1954)
Record High
Current Conditions

Wind Advisory Expanded: Rain This Evening Then Thunderstorms Friday Morning

Severe Weather
wind
Forecast
Warnings

Thursday  February 17 2022

Mid Day Report

Have you noticed the wind picking up already. That is bringing in our warm temperatures. At Noon, BWI reported a reading of 64ºF. But thanks to the colder Bay, Annapolis observed 43ºF. There will be a wide range of temps today, with inland readings in the upper 60s (I wouldn’t be surpassed if a 70ºF shows up) But by the water temps will be held back in the 40s and 50s.

Temperatures At Noon

 

 

The main focus in this post is about the wind, but rain is another factor. The rain will reach metro Baltimore and southern PA by 5 PM, so your late day travels may get wet.  The radar simulation below shows multiple bands of heavy rain that may contain thunder after midnight through sunrise.

Here’s the thing:  The Wind Advisory doesn’t begin until 10 PM, so this will be a long duration wind event, which is likely to reach its peak right around sunrise tomorrow. This may move trash bins and lawn furniture to or form your neighbors.  Trampolines can take flight.  Also tree branches and power lines could get knocked down.

Below are new simulations for wind and radar showing the peak of the storm. 

 

 

Storm Set Up

 

 

Severe Storm Outlook

Enhanced Risk: Most of Mississippi, Northern Alabama, and Western Tennessee. This has the highest chance for tornadoes, large hail, and damming winds.

Slight Risk: Shaded in Yellow, this area may still get in on the severe storms, but the risk is lower.

Marginal Risk: This area shaded is green has the lowest risk in the severe zone due to timing of the event too late in the day, or closer to the cooler temps on the north side that don’t fully support the storms.

Thunderstorms: Baltimore and all of Maryland into Southern PA and Delaware are included with the chance for rumbles of thunder. This would be the remnants of the storms that fade overnight. A cold front will arrive before sunrise.

 

 



 

Wind Advisory

This has been expanded to include southern Maryland (La Plata and Lexington Park).  While the formal advisory states winds up to 50 mph, model guidance suggests gusts may reach as high as 60 mph.

 

Peak Wind Gusts

Both the NAM and GFS have suggesting a broad area of winds over 50 mph.  The top winds forecast on some mountain ridges could reach 65 to 70 mph.

 

Wind Animation

Winds will remain strong and gusty from the NW with colder air during the morning through mid day. 

 

February-17-weather-storm-wind-forecast

 

FROPA (Frontal Passage)

The expectation is for the front to cross metro Baltimore around 6 AM.  The is when winds should reach their peak, and switch directions. 

 

 

 

Radar Simualtion 

There should be multiple lines of heavy rain that may contain thunder. The final push will be with the cold front likely to cross metro Baltimore just before sunrise. 

February-17-storm-radar-simulation-thursday

 



 

Temperature Forecast

3 PM Thu to 12 PM Fri

Temps will reach the upper 60s this afternoon, them may drop into the 50s this evening with the initial rain.  After midnight the strongest winds should push a second surge of 60s into the region.  When the front passes, those colder Northwesterly winds will drop temps into the 40s for metro areas, and 30s inland.  The rest of Friday will remain windy and chilly.

February-17-weather-temperatues

 

 

In my next post, I will have a closer look at the rain timeline.

 

7 Day Forecast

The high temps Friday will be before sunrise, then falling to the 40s by noon.

The weekend will be chilly, then warming next week.

We are NOT DONE WITH WINTER YET!

 

 

 

 

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ALSO SEE

 

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

 

ALL FITF GEAR

 

 

 

FITF THUNDERSNOW

 

 

 

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

 

 

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

 

 

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

 

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

 

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

 

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

 

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

 

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

 

Winter Folklore Checklist

 

 

 




Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter: @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

 

 

 

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF