February 15 Weather Taking A Turn This Week

Tuesday February 15

Morning Report

We are going to play a new game with the forecast this week. Winter is not over, but there is not much showing up for the week. In fact, we will have a surge of wind from the south and the new focus will be how warm it may get on Thursday.

That will be part of a storm that will bring snow and ice to the Great Lakes to the north, and also Severe Storm Risk to the south.  We may get some of that thunder overnight into early Friday. 

Headlines

• Today: Sunny and Cold
• Thursday: Spring Temps, Maybe a T’Storm
• Next Weekend: Quiet and Mild
• Next Week: Another Warm Up 
• Winter Cold May Take A Break For Another Week, but will try to come back.

Morning Set Up

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Weather Almanac: Climate Data at BWI

TODAY February 15

Seasonal Snow: 14”; 

+1.0” ABOVE AVERAGE

Normal Low in Baltimore:  27ºF

Record +6ºF in 2015

Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF

Record 77ºF 1949

Wednesday Temperatures 

Morning

Afternoon

Looking Ahead

Severe Storm Risk

It is looking like spring with a potential spike of severe storms in the Deep South.

Thursday Afternoon

• A strong storm will cross the nation with big contrasts shifting north.
• Snow and Ice in the Great Lakes
• Rain with Severe Storm Risk to the South
• Warmer winds flow our way

Thursday Temperatures 

This is the game we get to play. I initial forecasted 65ºF for Baltimore’s high temperature.  That was over the model guidance. Now the GFS has caught up, and we OFTEn end up even warmer.

Can we hit 70ºF???

Storm Animtaiton

4 PM Thu to 4 PM Fri

We will get the rain overnight Thursday, then ending early Friday morning. Cooler air will follow, but no arctic cold this time.

7 Day Forecast

• I kept the 65ºF high for Baltimore.. which may hold overnight Thursday into just past midnight into Friday morning… But the afternoon will be cooler.
• We may have a chance to surge higher…
• We will also have a chance for some rumbles of thunder overnight.
• The colder air that follows will be seasonal… 
• No snow in the outlook for the first time this year!

ALSO SEE

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

ALL FITF GEAR

FITF THUNDERSNOW

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF