Saturday February 12- Morning Report
Our weekend is starting mild but I am promise it will not end that way. After two days in the 60s, it may be hard for some to imagine arctic cold being enough to support any snow stockage. But the latest information is supporting that. So for others, it is just February in Maryland (and the Mid Atlantic).
I am focusing on the NAM 3 Km Model now, which performs best within 1-2 days of the event. It is showing a little bump in snow expectations… and the timing of the freezing temps before sunrise supports stickage.
A cold front will be crossing the region today. The arctic air will filter in later today and tonight.
Low Pressure in the South will ride and develop along the front.
The upper level energy to develop this will happen tonight and Sunday over the Mid Atlantic.
Arctic Air behind the front drops off dramatically. This is fuel for the storm.
1 PM Sat to 4 PM Sun: Watch The DROP This Afternoon
(Closer look at key time frames and snow below)
Seasonal Snow: 13.3”;
+4.7″ ABOVE AVERAGE
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record +5ºF in 1899
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 73ºF 1999
The freezing line should be dropping south of Baltimore at this time.
The freezing line reaches southern Maryland and south of Cambridge on the Eastern Shore.
Temperatures recover to near Freezing around Baltimore, with s thaw around metro Washington.
Concern on Delmarva with near freezing temps. Daytime roads may be wet, but will ice over after 5 PM through evening.
NAM 3 Km Model 10 PM Sat to 8 PM Sun
We can see some showers trying to break out tonight, but develop and expand after midnight.
Snow should be widespread by morning, and then push to Delmarva in the afternoon and early evening at the beaches.
It will end around Baltimore by 10 AM, rhino Annapolis closer to Noon.
Here are the hourly timelines I posted in my prior report. I will update this shortly.
2 AM to 11 AM
The update here may look like the stripe of heavy snow is broken, but the potential for nearly 2 inches of snow includes Frederick, Westminster, and Baltimore on the north end.
The middle strip looks more impressive here, but the northern edge is lower. Notice Baltimore in this plot is half the amount with 1″ and less to the northwest.
If I have any adjustments, I will post that and share with you in my afternoon report.
Central MD/Metro Baltimore
Biggest impact should be in the morning.
Southern Maryland/Delmarva
Snow lingers longer into the afternoon or evening by the beaches. There will be ore snow in this area, but warm ground to counter stickage. This is also the region that has a better chance to still be wet by evening, then ice up.
Monday: Flurries with the cold winds.
Warmer Wednesday and Thursday. Temps into the 60s with thunderstorms possible.
I need to emphasize: Winter is NOT done! I’ve heard that from conviction from a few people… But it’s not my impression.
In fact, what I have often seen is that in late winter when we get a surge of well above normal temps, it is often countered by a return of winter weather to balance it out. It may take another week or two, but it’s too early to throw in the towel.
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
