Big Winter Storm Brings Advisory For Ice In Our Area Friday

Thursday February 3 – Morning Report

To say the winter storm is big is an understatement. Snow or ice spans from the Mexican border on New Mexico and Texas to the Canadian border with Maine.  A large region has impacted road and airline travel, with flight delays or cancellations impacted cities not in ‘it’. 

Morning Set Up

This morning we have a Dense Fog Advisory on Delmarva, with rain spreading in. The large winter storm will slowly move east as arctic air arrives for us early Friday on the back side.

Temps will be warming all today, reaching the high at midnight.  That same high temp is likely early Friday, then falling all day.

Freezing temps will arrive early enough for inland areas to turn icy. More details with our Winter Weather Advisory below.

 

 

 

UPDATE FRIDAY MORNING

Click to see: Icing Delayed A Few Hours

Storm Animation

4 PM Thursday to 7 AM Sunday

Details for our region below.

 

Headlines

• This Morning: Dense Fog Advisory on Delmarva.
• Today: Rain, warming to midnight. 
• THEN REVERSE!
• Friday: High around midnight, the cooling all day.
• Winter Weather Advisory: Icy morning west and north of Baltimore. 
• Weekend: Cold!
• Sunday: No snow! That storm will not develop for us. 

Winter Storm Alerts

Over 2000 miles spans the patch of Winter Storm Warnings from our southern to northern US borders.

 

Local Winter Weather Advisory

If you saw my report last night, this matches up with the regions I identified as Likely and Good Chance for icing to impact work and school travel. 

More on our local impact below.

 

 

Morning Temperatures 

We are already on the warmer side of this storm system…

 

Radar Loop

4:05 AM to 6:10 AM

Bands of rain have spread in and will continue all day. There may be some breaks at times, but rain will be steadier and heavier later in the day.

 

Temperatures Forecast 

I want to focus on this, since it has raised many question. 

It is possible your weather app or local TV source is showing a high number for Friday’s high temperature.  That will be CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT… Then falling all day.

Temperature Animation

3 PM Thursday to 11 PM Friday

This helps show the rise tonight and then quick fall Friday.

Places that stay wet during the day, may ice up late afternoon and evening.

 

Snapshots

Thursday Afternoon 

With rain, temps will be climbing through the 40s.

 

Midnight

• For most of our region, the warmest part of this event.
• Watch the Freezing Line. Plotting the timing of this arrival is key to allowing the ground to cool enough for icing. 
• Southern areas may continue to warm until morning. 

 

Friday 7 AM

• The freezing line should reach just north and west of the Baltimore Beltway.
• Notice the drop to the 20s on the other side.
• *General rule is for regions that reach freezing by 6 AM will have the best chance for roads to ice up and affect travel to work or school.

 

 

Where Ice Is Likely To Impact Friday Morning

Local View

This is NOT A Promise, but where I believe the ice will establish on the roads to lead to travel concerns.

 

Explanation

Most Likely Icing On Roads:

• Maryland near the Pennsylvania line AND into southern PA to include much of York and perhaps into Lancaster Counties.

 

Good Chance For Icing:

• This depends on the freezing line arriving close to 6 AM, allowing time for the wet roads to freeze.
• Hagerstown, North of Frederick (the city tends to stay warmer for longer), Westminster, and Hereford Zone.

 

On The Bubble:

• This area really depends on how far the freezing line can reach before sunrise and ice up the roads. If this NAM 3 Km is too slow and the GFS wins, then these areas are in play:
• Germantown, Mt. Airy, Eldersburg, Towson, North Bel Air, Darlington.

 

Less Likely:

• Immediate Baltimore, around the Bay and southward. This includes not an issue for Washington and Annapolis.

 

 

 

Wider View

Weather Almanac: Climate Data at BWI

TODAY February 3

Seasonal Snow: 13.3”; 

+4.7″ ABOVE AVERAGE

 

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record 4ºF in 1961

 

Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF

Record 67ºF 2020

 

 

7 Day Forecast

• Saturday: Strong winds and snow flurries. 
• Sunday: No Snow. I removed that storm chance for us.
• Next Week: We should have a mild period setting up. No, winter is not done.

 

 

 

 

ALSO SEE

 

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

 

ALL FITF GEAR

 

 

 

FITF THUNDERSNOW

 

 

 

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

 

 

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

 

 

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

 

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

 

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

 

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

 

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

 

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

 

Winter Folklore Checklist

 

 

 

 

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF