Winter Weather Advisory Thursday Morning For Pennsylvania Maryland and Virginia

Wednesday January 19 2022 

Competed Advisory Update

The Winter Weather Advisory for Thursday morning to includes central Maryland, Southern Pennsylvania, and parts of Virginia around Washington DC. 

This post is to complete the regional coverage that was missing in the prior report. As expected the snow and icy roads will be an issue between Gettysburg, York, Harrisburg, and Lancaster in PA as well in the morning.

As for the schools, there is a narrow window Thursday morning when rain will change to slushy snow, then that may ice up all during the commute.  I see at least a delay potential for region wide schools, if not going virtual.

Winter Weather Advisory 

Southern Pennsylvania Zone:

• Rain to snow and icing begins before daybreak. 
• This region will be coldest in our area and most likely to be hazardous for driving during the morning. 
• Total Snow 1 to 3 inches.

North Maryland Zone:

• Before sunrise: Rain to snow. Slushy then icy roads developing.
• Total snow up to 2 inches. Isolated spots to 3 inches

South Maryland/Washington Zone: 

• Includes Baltimore Beltway, Annapolis, and metro Washington.
• A little later, and marginal temps.
• Slushy roads ‘may’ got icy. But temps will be slightly above or below freezing. 

 See the latest timeline breakdown for radar and temps below. 

HEADLINES:

• Thursday morning: Transition to snow between 6 AM and 9 AM in central Maryland. Temps falling below freezing west/north of Baltimore 1 to 2 hours after snow begins. Slushy stickage will lead to icing on roads.
• Thursday Mid Day/Afternoon: Snow ends for Baltimore, expands to Southern Maryland and Delmarva.
• Friday: Arctic Air returns. Lows in the Teens, Highs in the 20s.

UPDATE:

Click to see: My Call For Snowfall Map And Zone Breakdown

NWS Forecast Maps

Click Here For: Full package of NWS snow maps

*My call is very similar to this. I will work on my personalized map in a bit.

Notice the NWS forecast has Southern PA with up to 2 inches of snow. They should be added to the Advisory.

Radar Simulation Animation

12 AM to 4 PM

Rain will transition to snow in central Maryland between 6 AM and 10 AM.  The wave of Low Pressure may sent the northern edge of snow back north into Pennsylvania for additional snow coating there for a couple of hours.

Snow will linger in southern Maryland and The Lower Eastern Shore during the afternoon.

Tonight/Thursday Morning

Closer look at this snow development.

Rain showers tonight, then turns to snow during Thursday morning.  Snow will fall with slushy stickage on roads… THEN temps drop to freezing west and north 1 to 2 hours after the change to snow.  This will be during the morning commute and could lead to an icy mess.

Please note the time stamps. Should this arrive an hour or two faster then even more impact on the metro commute is likely.

Radar Simulation and Temperatures

6 AM

Watching the snow develop near Frederick and the PA line in Baltimore County.

7 AM

Snow should expand to Baltimore. Steady snow expected between Frederick, Westminster, and perhaps Bel Air.

The Freezing Line will reach 1 to 2 hours after the snow begins.

This should reach Frederick to Westminster and York PA at this time.

8 AM

Snow will expand south to near Annapolis.

The freezing line should reach Germantown, Westminster, and northeast to Forest Hill.

9 AM

Snow should arrive in Kent Inland and Easton. Also close to Dover.

A brief north push into southern PA may expand the coating on the roads.

Temps down to the 20s in Carroll County will accelerate the chance for icing on the roads.

The freezing line will be close to the Baltimore AND Washington Beltways.

10 AM

Snow should be ending in metro Baltimore,  but expanding to southern Maryland.

The freezing line will be close to I-95 and remain nearly stationary during the day.

Late Afternoon

The freezing line will still be draped across Rt 50/Bay Bridge areas. So the snow in Southern Maryland may be melting on the pavement.

How much Snow?

Please note this is the NAM forecast, not mine. I am showing you because I think the general expectation of 1 to 3 inches is a good starting point.

COMPARE TO

GFS Model

This is very aggressive with snow  totals.  However I still think not all that falls with stick due to some initial melting.

Friday Morning Temperatures

Here’s a look at the arctic air that will follow.

ALSO SEE

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

ALL FITF GEAR

FITF THUNDERSNOW

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist