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December 30 Weather Morning Fog New Year Rain May End With Snow

Forecast

Justin Berk

Dec 30, 2021

6:59 am

Thursday December 30

We have another morning starting with rain showers and fog. The showers will linger through mid day, then we enter a warming trend for a few days.

There is plenty of arctic air, and plenty of moisture. We we get warm rain over the New Year weekend, but a last wave may pull in the cold air in time to end it as snow Monday morning. I will show the two possible results below.

Morning Surface Weather

Morning Fog is thanks to overnight rain. The showers will move out of the region mid day. The really warm air will move in tomorrow, but there is plenty of arctic cold that will try to head our way.

With our warming, we will rain as the storm pattern will dominate the weekend. Then we need to watch how it will depart Monday…

Temperatures

Very similar to yesterday…

Locally we are again mild in the 40s…

Northern Plains: Below Zero!

Southern US/ Gulf Coast: Mornings temps into the 70s, feeling like summer!

Local Weather

Temperatures:

Visibility:

Under 2 miles is widespread. These are at reporting stations. There are many areas in between that are lower under 1 mile, so travel will be slowed.

Rain Animation 7 AM to 2 PM

December-30-weather-rain-thursday-morning

Afternoon Temperatures

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY December 30

Normal Low in Baltimore: 25ºF

Record -3ºF in 1880

Normal High in Baltimore: 42ºF

Record 68ºF 1990

Friday Temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

Rain Pattern: New Year’s Weekend

1 AM Sat to 1 PM Mon

This is the aggressive GFS Model. I am showing this to highlight the waves of Low Pressure, but the end is in question.

Our steadiest and heaviest rain will be Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Should a second Low Pressure form on the coast, it will pull in colder air and end with snow.

December-30-new-year-weekend-rain-snow

Monday Morning Snow Snapshot Comparison

GFS is much more aggressive than the European Model.

This GFS Model is trying to push steady accumulating snow Monday morning. I can not buy this solution yet.

European Model:

I must follow the conservative route with a faster and farther Low Pressure. That would take more moisture away by the time the cold air arrive. The result would still end this with some snow, but it will be light or flurries.

Why show the GFS?

Because this is the American Model that most of your apps and local weather forecasters use. I will always provide contrast and my suggestion which I support. But here can see why you may see different forecasts elsewhere.

Note: The modeling has been poor, but the Euro has been continued to be more consistent. That is the one I will continue to watch for any trends. I will highlight those trends with each report.