December 14 Warming Trend Then Big Changes Ahead

Tuesday December 14

It seems we had a really good showing for the Geminid Meteor Shower overnight. It has been nice to hear confirmation with Lots of reports confirming that.

This morning we have quiet weather and look to the national scale for all the action on the west coast. While we enter the warming trend we talked about last week, it does not look as warm as first thought. 

We will have a few days in the 60s, but wind direction and clouds are likely to keep it in check.   Then a fast moving pattern will bring in some rain this weekend and the return of colder air.   This brings in the long range potential for wintry weather early Christmas week. 

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure dominates our weather, bit a cold front to our north will actually slide our way and help to shift the winds tomorrow, which will delay the warming trend.

On the west coast, that storm is so intense, over 6 Ft of snow is in the middle of falling for many ski resorts over 6,000 Ft. That will race across the nation on a fast moving jet stream. 

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures 

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY December 14

Normal Low in Baltimore:  28ºF

Record 11ºF in 1960

Normal High in Baltimore: 46ºF

Record 71ºF 2015

*This was part of a 3-day ‘Heat Wave’ in 2015. Dec 12 to 14 had highs in the 70s.

Wednesday Morning

Wind Direction: 

This will not be a strong wind, however it will be the direction that comes from a the ocean. This will slow down the impact of the warming trend.

Wednesday Afternoon

Looking Ahead

Thursday to Tuesday

Here is the ECMWF Model  showing the next frontal boundary breaking up the rain Thursday, but returning on Saturday.  

Farther out we see a new storm form along the southern boundary that will attempt to bring in snow by Tuesday of next week. 

I DO NOT like to show models 7 days away based off of poor accuracy in recent months. But considering the potential for an abrupt return of winter during the Holiday Week, I think it’s a good idea to simply ‘watch’ this, but take it with a grain of salt for now.

7 Day Forecast

A few days are expected to reach the 60s. This should come to an end with rain on Saturday, then back to near or below normal temps into early next week.

ALSO SEE

NOAA OUTLOOK: Warm Mid December, Please Let Me Explain

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist