Wednesday February 2 2022
Night Report
In my prior report, I showed a few model comparisons showing the trend among models to bring in colder air on Friday. While there will be frozen precipitation reaching into Central Maryland, the arrival before or after sunrise will determine if it will affect roads or not. Later in the morning, ice can stick on trees, power lines, signs, and your car windows. However, during the day most roads would stay wet.
In this post, I have a new radar simulation showing the transition and attempt to bring in some snow Friday night (I know it keeps changing).
I also will take a closer look at where I think travel is likely to be affected for work and maybe school.
NAM 3 Km: 12 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday
It is important to note that we will start with a mild rain, then colder air will drop south. There will need to be at least an hour or two in the dark or low light to allow pavement to freeze. If it reaches your area closer to 7 AM or later, roads are likely to stay wet.
The snow on Friday night seen here is a new development. More on that later.
Where Ice Is Likely To Impact Friday Morning
(I have a closer metro look below)
I want to focus on the NAM 3 Km Model now for a few reasons.
NAM 3 Km Model Comparison
Big Shift This Morning… About 50 miles south with frozen precip.
I’ve highlighted the local number forecast through the morning.
Recall, temps need to reach 32ºF or colder by 6 AM to have time for the ground to ice up before daylight battles to warm the ground.
This is NOT A Promise, but where I believe the ice will establish on the roads to lead to travel concerns.
Each line represents the edge, with that regional effects to the northwest (left and above)
Most Likely Icing On Roads:
Good Chance For Icing:
On The Bubble:
Less Likely:
HOWEVER:
That animation above it the first indication it magic behind the front. I will update on that tomorrow.
NO!
The updated GFS Model caved to the Euro and suppressed that storm farther south.
This is a dramatic flip just 24 hours later in this model plot… It is best to let this idea go for now.
While the second storm appears to be a non issue, the GFS model still was leading the way with the icing for us on Friday. It is still the colder of the models, which may suggest it needs additional calibration. However. I will give it the nod to catching this first.
Now we can just focus on this one event. In the next few reports I will do my best to highlight the areas that are most likely to get icing, and those that still are on the bubble worth watching.
Still plenty of winter ahead of us. I think we can all agree, snow is better than ice, so let’s root that on next time.
Faith in the Flakes
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
