Snow Forecast Monday From HRRR Model

Sunday January 2 2022

This update is simply the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR). It is one of our best tools when we get into the short range time frame of a weather event. It accounts for the latest model forecast and update each hour with new data.

I want to emphasize that snow total forecasts often display HIGHER than we will verify. This is partially due to not accounting for the changeover melting time, and compression.

Below the maps is a link to the NWS Snow Forecast Page, where you can see the Regional NWS Offices Snow forecast maps including their Low and High End expectations. 

Winter Storm Watch

Note: This has been expanded to include Baltimore City to Montgomery Co.

Update to Warning and Advisories is likely to be issued this afternoon. 

The ‘Pay Attention’ region may be included in A Winter Weather Advisory.

Snow Forecast Animation: 

Monday Midnight to 6 PM

Morning Snapshot

Before Sunrise

• The northern edge will try to sneak in to southern PA for just a few hours of the morning commute… 
• There could be some impact there, but a sharp cutoff of the snow, then the band will retreat to the south. 
• Changeover: Southern Maryland to the Beaches will start with rain and then transition to heavy snow during the morning. This is where there may be snow falling and not all sticking.

Snow ‘Potential’ HRRR Model

Note: It will be cold enough for stickage eventually. 

Initial melting and wet pavement will develop ice under the snowpack, making for more travel issues into the afternoon and overnight 

NWS Snow and Ice Forecasts

Official – High End – Low End – Onset Time – and Ice When needed

Click the map for the full package of maps

Save This Link: It will auto update as new maps are generated 

NOAA Winter Weather Maps

Click the map for the full package of maps

Save This Link: It will auto update as new maps are generated 

My Call For Snowfall On The Way This Afternoon 

ALSO SEE

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist