Wednesday November 10 2021

Before sharing my snow outlook for this winter, I wanted to first revisit what happened last year.  I have been putting my forecasting out for scrutiny and grading for over a decade. So why not look back to remind ourselves of what happened AND how I did?

At first thought, I must be honest: I felt like I failed you. Perhaps I did on my seasonal outlook, but the individual storms were actually much more successful.  It’s funny how our memories get clouded or shift focus on one thing over another.

What is more important here: The complete seasonal outlook, or the individual storms?

When I wrote on social media that I was going to do this recap post before my winter outlook, I was pleasantly surprised by the people who remembered me getting a lot of storms correct. Let’s take a look at both. First the seasonal total history, then last winter’s individual storms.

Seasonal Outlook History

I have been issuing my seasonal forecast for over a decade. However, I only have record of it on my websites dating back to the winter of 2013 to 2014. That winter is actually when I locked in on the Canadian Model and hit almost every storm. That was when my Facebook page first reached 100,000 people led to many other things in my business. For that I thank you!

That was also when I was on a role… I had three good winters in a row, then failed in the 2016 to 20176 winter. Who expected only 3 inches???

Yes, I have actually had three seasons I consider a Fail in the last eight winters, including the last two. Was it truly a Fail? More on that below.

You may also notice I do NOT like to issue a winter outlook below our 20 inch average.

Hint: I have double believing we will have 6 low snow winters in a row.

What is a Fail or Bust?

To be honest, yes I overshot the snow mark (double). But when I was exploring this report, I found that my suggestion for the winter as a whole was pretty spot on.

Here is a screen shot from my winter outlook from LAST YEAR

I felt this would be backloaded with clusters of storms in February. We ended up with 6 to the 7 notable events in a 4 week period from Jan 25 to Feb 22.  Pretty close.

Winter 2020 to 2021 Grading

7 = Number Of Events or Notable Storms

6 of them occurred in a 4 week period.

Quick Storm Recap And Links

Each of these event reaps can be found with a link to the full report. As you may have noticed, this is a new version of my website. The older one is in ‘archive mode’ now and still has some problems. So there may be a graphic, chart, or grading poll that might not fully display.

Storm 1: December 16

Key Weather Maps

December-16-weather-storm-12-PM-analysis

December-17-storm-snow-reports-northeast

December-17-storm-snow-reports-Maryland-VA-and-WV

Storm 2: January 25

Key Weather Maps

January-25-weather-Monday-morning

Janury-24-weather-snow-and-sleet-arrival-Monday

January-26-weather-grade-my-forecast-768x554

January-26-weather-snow-Maryland

Storm 3: January 31 to February 2

Key Weather Maps

February-1-weather-morning-surface-weather

February-2-weather-snow-storm-Tuesday-evening

January-30-snowfall-my-call

Snow-February-2-Report-Map-Maryland-Virginia-768x594

Storm 4: February 7

This was by far my worst forecasting for the season.

Key Weather Maps

February-7-weather-snow-Sunday-morning

February-7-weather-Mesoscal-Analysis-Sunday-morning

February-7-snow-total-final-Sunday

February-7-snow-reports-Maryland-VA

Storm 5: February 11

Key Weather Maps

February-10-weather-afternoon

February-10-snow-tonight-ECMWF

February-11-weather-morning-winter-snow-ice-conditions

February-11-Snow-Spotter-Reports-Maryland-NWS-Sterling-768x482

Storm 6: February 18

Key Weather Maps

February-18-weather-snow-Thursday-night

February-19-weather-snow-ice-Friday-morning

My-Final-Call-for-Snowfall-Feb-18-to-19

Snow-Spotter-Reports-February-19-Maryland-Virginia-WV

Storm 7: February 22

This was definitely a good way to end the season, with a solid win!

Key Weather Maps

February-22-weather-snow-rain-Monday-morning

February-22-Weather-snow-radar-9-AM-768x406

February-22-My-Call-For-Snowfall

Snow-Spotter-Reports-February-22-Maryland-Virginia

Next up: Winter Outlook 2021 to 2022.

Long range forecasting is as much science, art, and guessing. I am OK showing you where I went wrong, if that also opens up the trolling force to accept when I was right. This game is a two street.

The actual individual storms are where I place higher importance. I will always treat those with respect and do my best. There are many sources of information online. I am not here for clicks, only to share my thoughts to make you aware and help you prepare.

Faith in the Flakes.