Thursday November 11

Today is a little extra special in my household. 11/11 is Veterans Day and also my son’s birthday. He knows the honor. We plan on making the most of the mild weather, and it will be the last of this stretch. 

Clouds will be increasing, so the afternoon will be a little cooler.

The cold front in the way will bring a strong line of rain. That now appears to be Friday morning. What was looking like a wet day, now appears to be mostly a morning event. That means the weather systems appear to be arriving faster than model suggestions, and I will apply this theory for winter events. 

Speaking of winter, it will feel like it this weekend. Chilly days with afternoon showers and snow in the mountains. 

I am still watching the upper level pattern that may bring the first flakes, if even flurries to inland suburbs early next week. 

Morning Surface Weather

Still mild this morning, but that complex to our west will be sending the clouds in that will gradually lower and thicken.

The cold front will be here Friday morning with an intense line of rain.. then the colder air will move in behind it.

Satellite Loop

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures 

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY November 11

Normal Low in Baltimore:  38ºF

Record 21ºF in 2017

Normal High in Baltimore: 58ºF

Record 77ºF 2006

Friday Rain

We may get some showers tonight. But here we start the loop at midnight, and see the line if storms will pass through our region between sunrise and noon, then depart the eastern shore during the afternoon. 

Friday Temps

Morning

Afternoon 

Weekend Showers Through Monday

The pattern through the weekend and Monday will feature upper level disturbances. We see one develop on Saturday, which will bring us rain showers and snow in the mountains. 

Another is expected on Monday, but the reflection on the surface gets lost again by modeling. I still see more influence that could bring a mix with light wet snow or flurries to our inland suburbs. 

If you hear me or any other forecaster talking about it, this would be first flakes falling far west and north of the cities. But not first stickage. I reserve that for Garrett County where a few inches of snow may add up this weekend. 

Loop: Friday morning to Monday afternoon

7 Day Forecast

Friday morning may have a few rumbles of thunder.

Weekend showers will be scattered, but the snow in the high mountains should accumulate a few inches.

Monday: We may have showers mixed with snowflakes well west and north.

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist

Faith in the Flakes Gear