Monday January 15 2024

One celebration today is the end of the snow drought. The report at 1 PM from Baltimore’s BWI had 0.5” snow, which exceeds all of last year. The next observation should push the 1 inch mark and then some, making this the end of our 2 year snow drought.

Doppler Radar does show the steady snow with more accumulation across southern Maryland and it will expand north tonight. With this we can expect a few inches of snow and stickage all around. This is why many area schools already called a 2 hour delay for Tuesday morning, extending the holiday weekend for many.

The morning may keep the snow in northern zones, with a band of sleet possible over metro Baltimore.

Surface Weather

As I explored with you in prior reports, the pocket of fast upper level winds or jet streak has been responsible for this snow event.

We can see Surface Low and a frontal boundary on the leading edge of the arctic air. This band of snow BEHIND the front is also called an Ana Front and common in arctic outbreaks.

This is what has made the call for timing and totals complicated.  But the region wide light to moderate snow with pure sticakge will continue all night.

Winter Weather Advisory

My suggested snowfall. New Snow Maps are below.

8 PM Set Up

Temperatures – Cold Enough For Stickage

In the 20s means a lighter snowflake that blows around easier in the wind.

8:30 PM Doppler Radar

Steady Snow across metro areas from Central Virginia to Southern and parts of Central Maryland. The snow is lighter to the north..for now.

However, the entire band is shifting north.

Radar Widget

This is not showing winter mode, but it is mostly snow. Compare to the forecast maps below.

Radar Simulation: HRRR Model

10 PM to Noon Wednesday

This product strips out the lightest snow, so where we see the dark blue, we can expect steady snowfall with accumulation.

That band will spread north all night. So yes, we are still on for the snow!

The morning may bring a band of sleet into metro Baltimore, while light snow will linger on the north side.

Temperatures Tuesday Morning

The thaw line will be across southern Maryland.

Most of the region will remain in the deep freeze from the 20s to teens.

Snowfall Potential Maps 

National Weather Service

Maryland and Virginia

Still has many in the 2 to 4-inch range.

Pennsylvania

Computer Models

NAM 3 Km Model

GFS Model

ECMWF Model

My First Call Map (Conservative – Low End)

I will update this by evening if need be to increase the totals.

End of Week: Another Storm?

To be honest, I have low confidence in the modeling for two reasons:

1. It has been poor
2. We always need to see how the storm in front behaves for the atmospheric setup that follows.

We do tend to get into patterns with arctic air masses that follow this trend. So that is why I have shown it here. There is a tendency for the system to trend closer or (Northwest) of what we see plotted here… That may introduce a rain/mix line.  Stay tuned.  FITF

Snapshot: Friday Afternoon

NOTE: The tendency is for the upper-level energy to speed up and pull back west/north. So, I think in a day or two, we may see this system come back together and keep snow on the outlook for Friday.

Storm Animation: Thursday Afternoon to Saturday Afternoon

7 Day Outlook

Remaining COLD! Wind Chill on Wednesday might be near zero!

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RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:

My Winter Outlook: More Snow

El Niño Winter Updates

Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

Faith in the Flakes Gear

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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