Saturday Jan 6 2024
The winter storm is more or less performing as expected, with a wider transition zone of icy mix. So for starters, this will cut down on snow totals, but keep the icy roads a problem. There is a layer of warm air between the clouds and the ground that has expanded across more of central Maryland.
This is a brief update for what to expect the rest of today. The best suggestion I can make is what I just shared with my clients:
This is critical for freezing and spotty pockets in some areas. I did my best to draw the main freezing line.
The winter precipitation depiction is far from perfect. So there are errors, but here is the breakdown.
Sleet or Freezing Rain depends on how thick that layer of warming is. Heavier precipitation can drag colder air down and offset any thaw to result in brief heavier snow.
Low Pressure was located in central North Carolina. This will track close to Ocean City later today.
The mid-level warming is the complicated part with the icy mix. Farther inland is where the pure snow and higher totals will continue to be expected.
This is the high-resolution rapid refresh model with the best indication of any transition. It is not perfect, so allow a buffer of 1 to 2 hours, either faster or slower.
Still icy just north and west of Baltimore/Washington, with snow farther north. This is the time window roads in the advisory zones may turn more slick.
Still icy in the northern suburbs.
Ice retreats to Southern PA and the mountains of Frederick County.
The storm will be done by then.
Maryland: Carroll, Frederick, Washington, and Allegany Counties. Plus, the Skyline Drive area of VA.
3 to 6 inches of snow. Freezing Rain up to 1/4”.
Pennsylvania: 3 to 5 inches (I know this fits more with the ‘Warning,’ but there are different criteria in PA).
Maryland: Northern Harford and Baltimore, Western Howard, and Montgomery Counties. Parts of Central VA: 1 to 3 inches of snow plus a glaze of ice.
The mix with sleet and freezing rain will lower totals in those areas. I will own my errors in the follow up report tomorrow.
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
