May 11 Weather Through Mothers Day Plus Aurora Photos and Forecast For More
Saturday, May 11 Morning Report We are stuck in this chilly and damp pattern. While we may have some sunny breaks and a little boost of temperatures back to the…
Thursday November 30 2023
Early this week NOAA identified four eruptions on the sun that were heading Earthbound. The Coronal Mass Ejections or CMEs were first seen with three on Monday and a fourth on Tuesday. While tracking these events, the Space Weather Prediction Center initially posted a G2 or Moderate Geomagnetic Storm.
UPDATE FRIDAY MORNING
Photos from Anchorage Alaska earlier this morning.
Thanks to Hayley Ansell for venturing out in the snow of these amazing photos.
UPGRADE to G3 (Strong)
On Wednesday, NOAA issued this update:
With 3 CMEs already inbound, the addition of a 4th, full halo CME has prompted SWPC forecasters to upgrade the G2 Watch on 01 Dec to a G3 Watch. This faster-moving halo CME is progged to merge with 2 of the 3 upstream CMEs, all arriving at Earth on 01 Dec. G3 (Strong) conditions are now likely on 01 Dec. Continue to monitor spaceweather.gov for the latest updates.
SWPC Report Screen Shot
Arrival Time
These are not easy to predict, but the best guess will be after midnight into the early morning hours on December 1.
SWPC Report Screen Shot
K-Index Forecast
Peak forecast Kp=7 between 1 AM and 4 AM Friday morning.
OBSERVATIONS UPDATE FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST: UPDATED FRIDAY MORNING
WHERE TO LOOK?
Up and North!
WHEN TO LOOK?
After midnight. Better between 1 AM and 4 AM.
SUGGESTION
If you plan to try and view, it will be BEST to get away from urban lights and allow your eyes to adjust to the dark. That means do no look at your phone for 15 to 20 minutes.
Aurora Viewing
With a K-index at 7, the best chance for viewing is North of 40ºN. However, there have been recent event seen in the mountains of Virginia with a lower Kp6.
Note: Often a Kp=8 is the threshold to see in Maryland.
Last Seen:
November 6 brought a Kp index between 5 and 7, which was seen in Maryland and Virginia.
Winter Outlook Reports:
My Winter Outlook: More Snow
El Niño Winter Updates
Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
