June 25 Turning Hot And Humid With Severe Storm Risk Monday

June 25, 2023

Sunday Morning Update

Yesterday proved once again that in this hit or miss pattern, some will get clobbered and others will miss out.  Today looks to be like that again, with a little more heat and humidity.

The concern builds tomorrow as the set up combines temps into the 90s for some and upper-level energy to produce widespread storms. NOAA has increased our Severe Storm Outlook and this is something worth paying close attention to. While there will be less heat, we could have more severe storms into Wednesday. Then improvement by the start of the holiday weekend.

Morning Surface Weather

A Warm and Humid air mass is in place and the heat will crank up today through tomorrow.

A large cold core Low located over Minnesota is the reason for very active storms along that boundary. While a few pop-up showers will develop this afternoon, the severe storm risk will reach us Monday. This is a slow moving pattern, so it may stay with us for a few days.

Radar Simulation: Noon to 10 PM

Most of today will be dry. However, there will be some pop-up showers and a few stronger thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

This product is NOT perfect, so use it as a guide.

5 PM Snapshot

Scattered showers will develop near metro Baltimore. A stronger cluster of storms is expected south of Washington into southern Maryland.

4 PM Temperatures

Regardless of how active these storms get, temperatures will be closer to average along with more humidity.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY June 25

Normal Low in Baltimore:  65ºF

Record 53ºF in 1979

Normal High in Baltimore: 87ºF

Record 99ºF 1997

Monday  Weather

Morning Temperatures

A very warm and muggy start near 70ºF. This will be fuel for the storms in the afternoon and evening.

NOAA: Severe Storm Risk

A line of storms expected later in the afternoon and evening may contain:

• Flash flooding
• Damaging winds over 58 mph
• Large hail over 1 inch diameter
• Isolated tornados

Radar Simulation 8 AM to 10 PM

This may be a more active day than just the late day storm line shown. Scattered showers are possible in spots late morning. However, the main event will be the line of strong to severe storms that erupt and swing through mid-afternoon to evening.

6 PM Snapshot

This product has a tendency to be a little slow. I would plan for the severe storm window in metro areas to be between 4 PM and 8 PM.

This is the line that will contain the potential for wind damage, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

Please take this seriously if you have plans for camping, boating, or any outdoor sports. etc.

Afternoon Temperatures

These are the expected peak temps before the storms roll in. Notice the drop into the 70s and 60s where the storms would have passed.

Rain Forecast Tuesday Morning To Friday Evening

The continued ‘pulsing’ of storms each afternoon and evening will persist Tuesday and Wednesday. This is expected to settle back to scattered showers and more dry days toward the end of the week.

• Tuesday and Wednesday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms, with potential for severe conditions. This can include flash flooding, damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornados.
• Thursday: Decreased showers as dryer weather and a cooler air mass arrive.
• Friday: More typical summer weather. There may be isolated showers, but mostly dry for the region.

7 Day Forecast

We will have a few days of very active, stormy weather. The peak of the severe risk may be on Monday with the highest temperatures. However, the unsettled pattern aloft may bring more severe storms through Wednesday.

The end of the week and holiday weekend seem to settle back to a more typical summer pattern.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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