Drought Watch Issued For PA and Region Update June 15 2023

June 15 2023

A Moderate Drought continues to build across the region. As of today, Pennsylvania has issued a state-wide Drought Watch. I will get to what this means in a moment, but I wanted to address why I put that in my title of this post. I believe this is appropriate for most of our area in the Mid Atlantic and expect more ‘watches’ may follow.

According to the US Drought Monitor:

States vary historically what the impacts can be. However, here is what can be expected.

• Honey production declines
• Irrigation use increases; hay and grain yields are lower than normal
• Trees and landscaping are stressed; fish are stressed
• Voluntary water conservation is requested; reservoir and lake levels are below normal capacity
• Wildfires and ground fires increase

Rainfall Measuring In Baltimore

Using the reporting station for Baltimore at BWI Airport, we can get a sense of what the region has been experiencing. I compared the monthly observations for precipitation to the average. We can see the only month above average was April.

• Jan -1.40
• Feb -0.72
• Mar -2.52
• Apr +0.73
• May -3.30
• June -1.88

TOTAL = -9.09” This is a BIGGER HOLE than just two weeks ago and even harder to to climb out of for any help.

Many lawns are ‘burning’ or drying up to brown grass. The farmers with limited or no irrigation are hurting as well.

According the US Drought Monitor:

MARYLAND

Maryland has 88% percent in the dry to very dry rating. 

Moderate Drought affecting 71%

Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 4,718,979

PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania has 100% of topsoil as dry to very dry.

Moderate Drought affecting 79.54%

Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 8,779,689

Drought Watch:

Press Release From the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania of Environmental Protection

“Risks and volatility in farming are weather-related more than in any other business,” Agriculture Secretary Russell Redding said. “Pennsylvania’s beneficial natural average rainfall has been upended by weather extremes and unpredictability in recent years. This year is no exception, with more than 90 percent of the topsoil across the state either short or very short in moisture content in the past week.

“It’s critical for farmers, orchard owners and other producers to keep track of losses, and take advantage of federal crop insurance to help recoup those losses and state conservation funding and business planning grants to protect their soil, diversify their operations, and cushion against future weather-related losses. Planning cannot change the weather, but it can help farm businesses manage the risks that come with it.”

The Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR) urges Pennsylvanians to be aware of increased fire risk.

Low precipitation has dramatically increased the number of wildfires in Pennsylvania this year. There have already been 1,400 wildfires reported statewide so far in 2023, compared to 1,036 in all of 2022. This year’s wildfires have burned more than 8,500 acres, compared to 2,700 acres in 2022.

More details can be found at this link.

VIRGINA

Virginia  has 55% of topsoil as dry to very dry.

Moderate Drought affecting 19.88%

Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 2,478,609

Northeast Region:

U.S. Drought Monitor Report

A storm system developed over the Midwest during the weekend and moved across the Northeast Monday into Tuesday bringing heavy rainfall to parts of the interior Northeast, warranting targeted improvements to the drought depiction in portions of northeastern Pennsylvania and interior New England. Otherwise, the storm system did little to improve antecedent dryness, acting only to halt ongoing deterioration, with the help of below average maximum temperatures for this week. In areas that experienced below average 7-day rainfall, expansion of abnormally dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions is warranted, particularly across southern portions of the Northeast. 7-day average stream flows have fallen below the 10th percentile of the historical distribution for this period and soil moisture continues to decline.

Rainfall Outlook

Improving!  Over the next week or two, we do have a favorable pattern for more rainfall. This will not be a drought buster, but may produce a few moderate rain days.

Friday Storms

This may begin with Friday June 16. I will have more details in my morning report.

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Also See: 

La Niña Has Ended. El Niño May Return By Fall

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

Aurora Photos From Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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