February 21 2023
Tuesday Morning
The weather this week is the stuff Memes are made of. We have a wind advisory today, and there will be more wind this week. That is a signal of an active weather pattern. This time we will track a winter storm to our north, which may briefly give some areas sleet on Wednesday, but the focus is on the chilly rain, followed by near record warm air Thursday.
Then we turn cold again this weekend. I remain very skeptical, but have a chance for light snow on the extended forecast.
Until 7 PM: Counties WEST of the Chesapeake Bay
Peaks Gusts THIS AFTERNOON to 50 mph. This can break tree branches, move trash cans and yard furniture.
10 AM to 10 PM
Peak wind gusts between Noon and 4 PM. There may be some power outages.
Another mild start to the day.
A little weather system with a big punch. That is what will produce the wind and some showers this afternoon.
The cold winter air remains north and will link up with a new storm forming in Texas. We catch the edge of this tomorrow, then the warm side on Thursday.
A band of showers will arrive this afternoon with the gusty winds. They should be brief but could be intense.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 28ºF
Record 2ºF in 2015
SNOW: 10.3” in 1929
Normal High in Baltimore: 48ºF
Record 79ºF 2018
Colder again.
Rain will develop from the mountains, and more steady near and north of Baltimore. Some cold air may allow brief sleet at the start in the northern suburbs to southern PA. Farther north a wintry mix will persist near and north of Harrisburg.
Chilly afternoon with the freezing air and wintry mix in central Pennsylvania.
It is VERY LIKELY we will reach the mid to upper 70s. There is a chance we get a record high temperature that day, and remain in the 70s on Friday before the next abrupt change… for another colder weekend.
The big warm up will be on Thursday as temperatures will approach one of the oldest records on the books.
It was 78ºF in 1874 on Feb 23. That is the mark to watch! We often end up warmer than models show.
Once again we see the fading of the potential wintry system. This has been the theme all winter. If the trend holds, this system may get lost for a day or two, then creep back. I am still very suspicious about getting much out of this. So I am only showing it with high skepticism.
We have just about everything this week. That means we will have windy days beyond today!
Reminder: The rain Wednesday may start with brief sleet, and possibly more persistent near and north of Baltimore.
I am holding the light snow chance Saturday, but I don’t see much from this as of now.
Report: Tracking Winds For Movement from the accident to the Controlled Burn Also see Videos Of Toxins in local water in East Palestine, OH.
REPORT: Chesapeake Bay and Ohio Watersheds. Please click here for that report if you missed it.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school 
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
