About The Toxic Train Derailment In East Palestine And Our Rain Forecast

February 15, 2023

Wednesday Night Update

Back on February 3, there was a train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. This is located just west of the Pennsylvania border and about 1-hour drive Northwest of Pittsburgh. It contained toxic chemicals that were released into the air during the accident, then more were released with a ‘controlled’ explosion.

There has been limited media coverage, but a lot of sensitive material erupted on social media pertaining to the human health impacts and death of wildlife.

This is just outside of my weather coverage area in the Mid-Atlantic, but I have received many questions about it and if there will be any connection to our region with wind and weather. I did not want to share information that was feeding the frenzy without getting confirmation. Now that we have a rainstorm arriving from that direction, I felt it was appropriate to share what I deem to be helpful information.

In this report, I will first address the Watershed, then the incident itself, and finally, our weather forecast for Thursday and Friday.

Watershed

This is a region that defines where water drains through streams and rivers, eventually emptying into a larger body of water like an ocean.

This does not include wind and other weather systems. I will address that below.

Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This includes my forecast area in the Mid-Atlantic. Here water drains into the Chesapeake Bay and eventually the Atlantic Ocean. We get water from as far north as Cooperstown, NY, on the Chenango and Susquehanna Rivers.

The western flank is the Continental Divide. If you have driven to western Maryland, this is around the Garrett County border. The Shenandoah and Potomac Rivers flow our way.

Included is most of central Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia.

All points east flow to the Chesapeake Bay. All points west flow to the Ohio River Valley. East Palestine is NOT in our Watershed.

Ohio River Basin

The water from East Palestine does flow into the Ohio River. This also includes the 3 Rivers from Pittsburgh and Garrett County in western Maryland. All of this connects with the Mississippi River and drains into the Gulf of Mexico.

UPDATE ON FRIDAY

Click here for more: Chemical Trail: New Videos from the water AND Tracking The Smoke Cloud

Severe Storm Risk Thursday

I have a more detailed weather report below and info and videos about the train derailment.  The concern here is the rough weather and heavy rain adding to the expansion of the toxic spill.

Toxic Train Derailment

Here’s what I know from notes and video clips I gathered with caution. There is a lot of angry and false info.

There has been an impact on the environment, including dead animals and sick people. There is a smell of plastic and chemicals still in the immediate area (within 10 to 20 miles of the accident site).

This may be labeled partisan, like many things on the internet. However, I’ve seen both Democrats and Republicans concerned and asking for more transparency regarding information still not available.

Video Train Accident/Fire: Night of Feb 3-4

Powerful @21WFMJNews drone video from East Palestine train derailment. Powered by @680aerials pic.twitter.com/1zU1VTAQse

— Sheila Marie Miller (@21NewsEP) February 4, 2023

Video Control Burn: Monday Feb 6

Here is a video of the “controlled explosion” in East Palestine, OH at the Norfolk Southern train derailment – @21WFMJNews drone powered by @680aerials

East Palestine sits in a valley. Due to a temperature inversion and the topography there it kept smoke/chemicals from… https://t.co/866CezH9LI pic.twitter.com/aarJRBfW1A

— 𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕷𝖎𝖔𝖓𝖊𝖘𝖘™️ (@CL4WS_OUT) February 15, 2023

Notes:

A train on the Norfolk Southern Rail Line with toxic chemicals had a bad axle catch fire and eventually fail. The load had 5 cars that contained the very toxic chemical Vinyl Chloride.

It’s estimated the total was close to 1 million pounds. OSHA has a limit of human exposure in an 8-hour shift of 1 part per million!

This chemical boils in exploded air, leaking into the water AND air.

It caught fire, and then there was a ‘controlled burn’ expecting to ‘safely’ burn the chemicals.

Video

This resulted in a more toxic cloud of hydrogen chloride that bonds easily with water. Then turns into hydrochloride acid.

This video from Engineer Nick Drom explains it clearly. This has 3.7 million views.

Best video I’ve seen so far #trainderailment #EastPalestine -This is a must watch If your in East Palestine, or the surrounding area. – Follow me for more East Palestine updates like this pic.twitter.com/sjZjLQD21A

— Jacob (@RaleighFam) February 7, 2023

Eyewitness Video:

Ecological Disaster observing dead fish.

There have been numerous reports of dead animals all over Ohio. The Norfolk Southern train derailment is a major ecological disaster and people need to be criminally charged for this kind of gross negligence or it’s doomed to repeat itself. @POTUS pic.twitter.com/pZnSWMLmCz

— Fifty Shades of Whey (@davenewworld_2) February 13, 2023

Disaster Summary

Warning: This contains sensitive material and profanity. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene posted this, and it has been seen by over 16 million people. I cannot confirm all the claims; however, this is part of what is stirring the concern of the public, which is why I am sharing it with you.

East Palestine, Ohio is undergoing an ecological disaster bc authorities blew up the train derailment cars carrying hazardous chemicals and press are being arrested for trying to tell the story.

Oh but UFO’s!

What is going on?

pic.twitter.com/RULoF1oKJQ

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) February 12, 2023

Dead Animals

WARNING: I know a lot of students read my reports, so I cautiously shared that prior video. There are many more with dead chickens and house pets.

NEW – Toxic chemicals: Residents near Ohio train derailment report dead chickens https://t.co/FTKFtCcPHzpic.twitter.com/PTENEkAFrh

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) February 14, 2023

Sick People

Many who have returned to their homes have claimed headaches and skin irritation. It was deemed safe to return and drink the water. But since bottled water has been handed out.

Ohio Governor DeWine recommended drinking bottled water.

Erin Brockovich

This is the woman made famous in the movie, played by Julie Roberts. She dealt with a similar situation and had this statement (among other things).

There have been numerous reports of dead animals all over Ohio. The Norfolk Southern train derailment is a major ecological disaster and people need to be criminally charged for this kind of gross negligence or it’s doomed to repeat itself. @POTUS pic.twitter.com/pZnSWMLmCz

— Fifty Shades of Whey (@davenewworld_2) February 13, 2023

Weather:

What about the wind and rain?

Thursday will bring a line of heavy rain, strong winds, and a chance for severe storms. However, the bulk of severe weather is likely to the west of East Palestine.

Thursday Weather Forecast

Note that the train accident was 2 weeks ago. Most of what was released has already dispersed. There is a higher concentration of materials around the town, but much less available to be transported now.

Surface Winds

Winds will be from the South. Again, not reaching us in The Mid Atlantic.

Jet Stream

The winds around 10,000 Ft at cloud level will be racing 50 to 70 knots to the Northeast. That prevailing wind from East Palestine travels to northern PA and Central NY.

I understand at this point, you may think that includes our Watershed. That would be more appropriate to go back to the weather on February 3 and 4 to track.

Storm Total Rainfall

In the Ohio Valley, the rain will exceed 1 inch, including over the spill site.  This will compromise any efforts to contain the chemicals that may have already been soaked into grass, trees, and on buildings that will flow into the waterways or seep into the water table.  This is not the first rain since the event, but it will act on the chemicals still present.

Local Weather

Noon Radar

Rain will be developing in our region mid-day. Heavier rain will be falling back in the mountains (Ohio Watershed).

Radar Simulation: Noon to Midnight

Friday Cold Front

The end of the storm for us will include a wind shift from the Northwest.

Morning Radar Snapshot

Wind Forecast

The wind shift from the Northwest will bring in colder air. The hope is that any toxicity will be washed out of the air and not carry our way at this time.

Temperature Drop

We will have a high temp in the 60s close to midnight, then rapidly falling before noon.

Subscribe for eMail Alerts

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter: @JustinWeather

• Instagram: justinweather