February 16 Still Warm Ahead Of Another Rain Storm Then Crashing Temps Friday

February 16, 2023

Thursday Morning

Clouds are already moving in ahead of the next rain event, which should arrive around noon.  Temperatures are warm, but not as warm as yesterday… and we will likely halt the rise as the rain arrives.

Yesterday in Baltimore, BWI reported 71ºF at 4:31 PM. This fell short of the record 77ºF in 1949.

Tomorrow will start off like spring, the morning storm line may contain thunder, then windy and turning much colder in the afternoon.

Morning Temperatures

Following the very warm day yesterday, temps have remained very mild.

Morning Surface Weather

Clouds moving in this morning. Rain will arrive around noon.

Severe Storm Risk

This storm will bring a severe weather outbreak into the Ohio River Valley. Threat for damaging wind, hail, and some tornadoes includes Nashville, TN, Cincinnati, and Columbus in Ohio.

IMPORTANT NOTE:

I wrote a report with all the legitimate info and some controversial videos about the toxic train derailment in East Palestine, OH.  I also explained how this relates to the Chesapeake Bay and Ohio Watersheds. Please click here for the images if you missed that report.

Live Radar Widget

Tracking the rain that will arrive this afternoon.

Noon Snapshots

Radar Forecast

Rain should be developing across our region around lunchtime.

Temperatures

The high today will be around the time the rain arrives. So not as warm as yesterday.

Radar Simulation Animation

Noon to 11 PM

Rain Forecast

A stripe of 1-inch of rainfall is expected to extend from the mountains into metro Baltimore.

Subscribe for eMail Alerts

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY February 16

Normal Low in Baltimore:  27ºF

Record 5ºF in 2015

SNOW: 21.8” in 2003

Normal High in Baltimore: 47ºF

Record 75ºF 1954

Friday Weather

NAM 3 Km Model: 5 AM to 3 PM

Rain and Stormy morning with the cold front.

7 AM Snapshots

Radar Forecast:

Heavy rain will return with the cold front.  This may contain some rumbles of thunder.

Temperatures:

The warmest time of the day may be around sunrise in metro areas… before the cold front arrives.

12 PM Snapshots

Radar Forecast

The cold front will be passing south and east of the Bay Bridge.  The signal of colder air will break out snow showers in the mountains.

Temperatures 

Much colder air will be rushing in through the afternoon and evening.

7 Day Forecast

The weird day will be Friday: Warmer at sunrise than in the afternoon.

Saturday will be chilly, then back to mild non-winter weather next week. Rain showers on Presidents Day!

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

Subscribe for eMail Alerts

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media

• • Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

  • Twitter: @JustinWeather

  • Instagram: justinweather