Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 08/15/2022 11:40:02 am
Temperature

75°

Mostly Cloudy

63°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

66%

Feels Like

75°

Wind (VRB)

6mph

Air Pressure

29.99

Sun
Sun Rise

06:20 AM

Sun Set

08:02 PM

Day Length

13:42 Hours

Difference

2 min 14 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

10:21 PM

Moon Set

10:16 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Aug 19,2022

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

66°

85°

Average High
Record Low

49°


(1964)

103°


(1988)
Record High
Current Conditions

July 5 Severe Storm Risk This Afternoon

NOAA
climate data
Severe Weather
Forecast

July 5 2022

Tuesday Morning Update 

We can be grateful for the beautiful weather we had yesterday, because today will feel more humid with developing storms.  A storm complex moving out of the Great Lakes will arrive during the peak afternoon will allow it to reach top potential when crossing central Maryland. This brings the potential for destructive weather.

NOAA Severe Storm Risk

The Slight Risk for Severe Storms means about 15% chance of any storm turning severe. That could bring damming winds over 58 mph, large hail over 1” diameter, and even an isolated tornado.

Any storm can bring dangerous lighting and flash flooding. 

 



 

Morning Surface Weather

 

Satellite Loop 4 AM to 6 AM

Here we can see the complex crossing Lower Michigan, which will then dive southeast in our direction later today. 

 

July-5-weather-storm-satellite-tueaday-morning

Afternoon Temperatures at 3 PM

I picked this snapshot to show the contrast of 90s in metro areas to 70s just inland cooled from the storms.

 

 

Radar Simulation Snapshot at 4 PM

This particular HRRR Model suggest the peak complex reaching central Maryland and metro Baltimore.  I will again suggest a 1 hour buffer, so consider the region to be impacted between 3 PM and 5 PM.

 

 

Radar Simulaitons

Comparing two models, but this will likely play out between the two suggestions. 

 

HRRR Model 12 PM to 10 PM

This model focuses on one main cluster of storms mid afternoon. This behaves like a Meso-Low with potential for widespread severe storm behavior. Multiple warnings may possibly be issued.

July-5-weather-storm-simulation-hrrr-model-am

 

NAM 3 Km Model 12 PM to 10 PM

This model shows more activity earlier in the afternoon, but less intense complex at the 4 PM time frame…

July-5-weather-storm-simulation-nam-model-am

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY July 5th

Normal Low in Baltimore:  66ºF

Record 55ºF in 2014

 

Normal High in Baltimore: 89ºF

Record 102ºF 1999

 



Wednesday Temperatures 

Morning

 

Afternoon

 

Storm Simulation: Tuesday To Saturday 

We will get into the pattern of scattered showers and storms just about each day.  This does NOT promise you will get hit as many of these will be scattered showers, and like we saw over the weekend, those can dump on some areas while leave others out.

 

July-5-weather-storm-forecast-gfs

 

7 Day Forecast

 

Plan Your Kayaking Day Now

 

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

 

 

Forecast From Colorado State University

Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

 

Related Posts

 

NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms

 

 

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

13_Tropical Storm Formation Sep11_20

 

 

Recent Storm Reports

May 22 Hail And Wind Damage

May 16 Large Hail Videos And Storm Tracking Map

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter: @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

 

 

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.