July 2 2022
Saturday Afternoon Update
Here we go again, but this was expected. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been posted for most of our region until 9 PM. In addition to that a Flood Watch has been issued for Central Maryland until 10 PM. This is because some storms may produce 1 to 3 inches of rain and lead to Flash Flooding.
This does bring heightened attention to Ellicott City for flooding. I also want to draw attention to Northeastern Maryland, mainly Cecil County through Northern Delmarva. The region may be in the path for multiple strength severe storm cells through the afternoon and tonight.
In this post you will see the latest Watch Area, Compare Two Model Radar Simulations (both animation and sliders), and Live Lightning and Radar Widget.
I continue to have low confidence in the short range guidance models. However, within this short time frame, there is a general idea of this:
- 6 PM and 10 PM: Metro areas (Frederick, York, Westminster, Ellicott City, Baltimore, Bel Air) get most stormy.
- After Midnight: The front stalls with storms redeveloping between Baltimore, Annapolis, and central Delmarva.
- Sunday Morning: Lingering showers, with more storms through the day around Ocean City.
Watch – (may happen) – This means potential for storms to turn severe or flooding is likely. This is usually issued first for a broad areas and over the course of 6 hours or longer.
Warning – (happening now) – This is when a storm is occurring with those conditions. A shorter time frame with more specific towns and counties will be named.
Storms may contain winds over 58 mph, hail over 1″ diameter, and isolated tornadoes.
They are more likely to have dangerous lightning and or flash flooding.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
This was issued by the National Weather Service.
Counties Included are:
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL
CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK
HARFORD HOWARD KENT
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE`S
ST. MARYS TALBOT
ADAMS BUCKS CHESTER
DELAWARE LANCASTER MONTGOMERY
ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS
4:15 PM Doppler Radar Snapshot
Here was the radar view I saw as I came in from my training today.
The storms were firing up, what appeared to be earlier than model guidance.
Short Range Models
HRRR Model —> slider 5 PM to Midnight
Radar Animation Simulation
5 PM to 4 AM
NAM Model —> slider 5 PM to Midnight
Radar Animation Simulation
5 PM to 8 AM
Live Radar and Lightning Widget
From Earlier Today
Severe Storm Outlook from NOAA
It Is Paddling Season
Book Your Kayak or Paddle Boat Adventure On The North Chesapeake Bay
7 Day Forecast
After storms that may turn severe on Saturday, it will be followed by a cooler Sunday. The July 4th- Monday should heat up again, but remain dry.
Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on Tuesday.
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30
Forecast From Colorado State University
Recent Storm Reports
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.