Friday March 11 Calm Before Winter Storm Alerts Posted Saturday

Friday March 11

Morning Report

Today is the calm before the storm. In fact sunny, mid, and uneventful and as irony would have it, last year we set the record high on this date at 79ºF. But, not today!

If you are a skeptic the in addition to my maps I have the National Weather Service Winter Storm Alerts issued for Saturday. This really will happen and it will be a shock to the system… Even if you are not in an alert at this time, please pay attention!

I want to show you the set up briefly, and work through some key steps along the way.

Headlines

• Today and Tomorrow: Mild
• SATURDAY WINTER STORM
• Saturday: Stormy Rain To Snow. Strong Winds Gusting over 40 mph
• Sunday: Windy and Cold AND Clocks Forward
• Next Week: Spring Begins and Feels Like It!

Winter Storm Alerts

Quick Reference: 

• Winter Storm Warning (pink): Snow 4 to 8 inches
• Winter Storm Watch (dark blue): Snow 3 to 5 inches. Will be upgraded shortly
• Winter Weather Advisory (purple): Snow 2 to 4 inches
• If your area is NOT colored in, there may be less stickage, but you still get in on falling snow/wind/and icing potential Saturday evening. 

Morning Surface Weather

This is the set up we were waiting for all winter!!!

There is a distinct line of snow with the surge of polar air behind it on the move.

Along the Gulf Coast there is a cluster of storms that has been dumping heavy rain and ready to move north.

Morning Temperatures

The arctic/polar air is undeniable here. It is on the way…

Storm Development

Animation 10 AM  Friday to 7 PM Saturday 

See closer look below

LOCAL LOOK

Morning Temperatures

Note: There is patchy fog and you might have thick frost to scrape off of the windows.

Afternoon Temperatures

Weather Almanac: Climate Data at BWI

TODAY March 11

Seasonal Snow: 14”

Normal Low in Baltimore:  32ºF

Record 6º F in  1960

Normal High in Baltimore: 52ºF

Record 79ºF 2021

Saturday Storm

Wind: 

I want to show this so it does’t get lost in the mix.  Winds will be pushing 20 to 45 mph form the North-Northwest. This will drop temps and bring the rain to snow mix earlier! The ECMWF Model I have been showing seems to be the winner on this.

Wind Chills will be painful!

Temperatures

Key Timeframes to show the perspective of the falling thermometers.

NOTE: The High will be early in the morning!

5 AM

8 AM

12 PM- Noon

Wind Chills

AFTERNOON

4 PM- This is why I expect icing on anything that is wet

EVENING

7 PM- This is why I expect icing on anything that is wet

Sunday Morning

This is why I expect icing on anything that is wet

Rain To Snow

The Transition Time for metro Baltimore should be around 8 to 10 AM.

The timing earlier allows those places a better chance to accumulate snow. Later change over fights both warmer ground AND higher sun angle for stickage…. But it will still snow.

NAM 3 Km Model Animation

2 AM to 7 PM Saturday 

The Transition Time for metro Baltimore should be around 8 to 10 AM.

The timing earlier allows those places a better chance to accumulate snow. Later change over fights both warmer ground AND higher sun angle for stickage…. But it will still snow.

HOW MUCH SNOW?

!THESE ARE NOT MY FORECAST MAPS! I will issue my map later if I have a chance (I have a prior obligation today)

Click to see:  The full suite of NWS regional Snow Maps.

You can compare the official forecast to the Low and High End POTENTIAL

Samples for Maryland and Pennsylvania: What is expected to lay and stay (after some melting)

7 Day Forecast

ALSO SEE

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

ALL FITF GEAR

FITF THUNDERSNOW

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF