February 10 2022
Thursday Afternoon Update
I wanted to focus this report just on the American GFS Model. This has been the most consistent with the snow event, while the other main models have joined in late and are still fluctuating with the location for the snow banding.
I need to preface this as NOT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. However, it is getting high credibility and the basis for most weather apps.
Here is a FOUR PANEL look at the GFS Model for the past 4 runs. This model is generated every 6 hours, and here is a look at how the plots for the same time frame have looked over the past day.
7 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday
This helps show the evolution of the snow banding overnight into Sunday morning.
Th good news is that this looks like it will be gone by evening, so little impact on your Super Bowl party plans… However, there may be some icing. See the temps below.
Notes:
The steadier and heavier snow may fall in a line near Washington and Baltimore, and south into Virginia and Southern Maryland.
We must consider the bias of recent wether systems verifying a little west of the forecast. So the would keep more of Metro Baltimore in the ‘potential fold’. This is NOT a lock yet with a fe more days to sort out.
1 AM Sunday to 4 PM Sunday
Here are the 3 hour summary plots, so the snow may look less intense. However the steady snow is focused south. There is still some wiggle room for the to adjust some more.
Again, we can see the focus on Sunday morning, then improving in the afternoon.
S+ stands for Heavy Snow
*There is still some wiggle room for the to adjust some more. That is why I am not showing a map of forecast totals yet.
I still do not like to give amounts this early, but the intensity and timing of this event supports a general coating to 3 inches of snow. Just enough to plow and impact travel.
12 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday
Temps will be falling from midnight, then rebound to near freezing Sunday afternoon. So if there is a cover of snow by you, it could melt then refreeze.
Temps drop into the 20s Sunday evening and drop to the teens inland by Monday morning.
*Universal Time is used.
Valid (samples)
This is based on just one model and not the final forecast. But if the GFS does verify with its consistent plots, then we are looking at up to a few inches of snow, mostly Sunday morning….
But traveling to any parties should be fine, only to consider icing up in the evening on untreated surfaces (salt your walk/drive/steps) for your guests.
I still have us with a 60% chance for snow on Sunday, but I will start to focus more on the likely being a morning event.
Monday will be COLD with gusty winds and flurries, then we start a warming trend. There is still a chance we aim for the 60s by the end of next week.
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
